Regional jet manufacturer Embraer has set its projected 2006 deliveries at the same 145-aircraft level expected this year and already forecast for next year, reflecting the drop in sales of 50-seat airliners.
The Brazilian manufacturer has substantially reduced its 20-year forecast for deliveries in the 30- to 60-seat segment to 1,950 aircraft, down from the 2,600 units projected last year as the North American and European markets slow down. Beginning next year, the 70- to 110-seat Embraer 170/190 family will account for more than half the company's forecast deliveries.
Apart from a slight shift to the larger-capacity segment, Embraer's 20-year forecast for the 61- to 90-seat and 91- to 120-seat markets remains essentially unchanged from last year, at 2,850 and 3,000 aircraft respectively.
Embraer's 2005-14 market outlook is for 650 deliveries in the 30- to 60-seat segment (down from 1,150 in last year's 2004-13 forecast); 1,300 deliveries in the 61- to 90-seat category (unchanged); and 1,250 in the 91- to 120-seat sector (also unchanged).
The company's forecast for 2015-24 is for 1,300 deliveries in the 30- to 60-seat segment (down from 1,450 12 months ago); 1,550 in the 61- to 90-seat category (down 50); and 1,750 in the 91- to 120-seat sector (up 50).
Meanwhile, Canada and Brazil have pledged to work towards reaching an accord that would prevent future disputes over regional aircraft subsidies. Embraer's forecast underlines that funding for Bombardier's new CSeries 110-130 seater will be the next issue.
During a meeting held last week in Brazil, Canadian prime minister Paul Martin and Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva "agreed to work towards an early agreement that may pave the way to further progress in this area", says the prime minister's office.
Canada and Brazil have been negotiating since early 2003 over the sensitive issue of subsidies to Bombardier and Embraer, respectively. Both manufacturers have taken their complaints about claimed subsidies provided to the other to the World Trade Organisation on several occasions. Neither has launched trade retaliation.
Source: Flight International
