COLIN BAKER LONDON

There has been a significant improvement this summer in air traffic control delays as increases in air space capacity and a slight reduction in traffic levels take effect.

Eurocontrol, responsible for managing Europe's airspace, reports a drop of 32.5% in average air traffic flow management (ATFM) delays in July 2002 compared with the same period last year. This basically measures the difference between requested and actual take-off time given by Eurocontrol's central flow management unit (CFMU).

The number of flights affected by CFMU regulations has also fallen by 26% over the same period, with overall delays (requested departure time compared to actual departure time) down by around a third. The latter relates most closely to passenger experience.

The Association of European Airlines (AEA), which has often been at loggerheads with Eurocontrol over the delay problem in recent years, also notes that there has been a marked improvement since March this year. AEA figures for June show that the delay situation has gone back down to levels last seen in 1995-1996.

However, AEA secretary general Karl-Heinz Neumeister warns against complacency. "The present circumstances represent an opportunity for the air traffic control community to prepare for the inevitable resumption of growth," he says, noting that last time there was an improvement, around seven years ago, it was followed by a "dramatic worsening" of the situation.

There are two key factors behind the improvement. Firstly, there have been technological advances, notably the introduction of reduced vertical separation minimum (RVSM), which has increased capacity in upper air space. Secondly, there has been a reduction in traffic due to the industry downturn.

The AEA says that seat-kilometres are down by an annual rate of 10% on intra-Europe routes and 13.5% on long haul for the second quarter. Eurocontrol reports a much smaller drop in demand, just 1.5%. However, this can be explained in part at least by the rise of the low-cost sector - none of which are members of the AEA.

AEA officials say that it has been assumed by both the airlines and Eurocontrol that there is a critical point, in terms of air traffic volumes, above which there comes a "quantum leap" in the level of delays. Technological improvements and the reduced traffic levels mean that the industry is now below this point, it suggests.

Eurcontrol says: "This is a good indication of the co-ordinated, collaborative approach taken by Eurocontrol and all the players in the European air traffic flow management system in order to optimise the available capacity."

While most airports have seen significant improvements in their delay rates, Dublin, London Gatwick and Paris Orly still saw their performance slip. Their were improvements on the part of some recent major offenders, however, including Milan Malpensa, Madrid Barajas and Zurich.

Intra-European delay rates

% of flights delayed by 15 mins-plus

Year

June

Q2 Apr-June

1989

30.8%

25.7%

1990

24.5%

20.3%

1991

25.9%

18.8%

1992

22.6%

20.3%

1993

13.1%

12.0%

1994

13.3%

12.2%

1995

19.5%

16.9%

1996

18.4%

17.4%

1997

24.1%

19.7%

1998

29.2%

24.1%

1999

37.5%

35.1%

2000

28.4%

26.6%

2001

29.0%

25.7%

2002

20.2%

16.6%

Source: Airline Business