Ramon Lopez/WASHINGTON DC
The US Federal Aviation Administration predicts a rosy future for US airlines and commercial airframers, reporting that carriers will ride out the crisis of spiralling fuel prices and generate sustained growth.
The latest FAA forecast says a strong world economy will produce an environment conducive to increased capacity, improved productivity, more competition and falling air fares. The industry will thrive, it predicts, despite massive fuel price hikes - December's prices were 43% higher than a year earlier.
Although further rises will inevitably affect air fares, the FAA predicts that fuel costs will begin to drop later this year, albeit remaining at about 24% above last year's prices.
Detailing last year's industry trends, the FAA reports net profits of $4.9 billion for the top 13 US carriers, with only Trans World Airlines taking a net loss, the airline having failed to a make profit since 1988. US international passenger traffic is forecast to grow faster than domestic traffic, with most growth in Latin American and Asia-Pacific markets. The regional market will expand even faster - US carriers moved more than 72 million passengers last year, a figure that could double by 2011.
Regional requirements are driving jet airliner orders, the FAA adds, and this will continue. The US fleet will grow from 203 aircraft last year to 1,526 by 2011. The general aviation fleet is expected to increase from 206,000 to 231,000 aircraft over the same period, with the turboprop/turbojet segment growing fastest.
• The US Senate has approved the bulk of the government's $40 billion, three-year FAA funding plan, with the House of Representatives due to follow suit. The bill increases airport improvement funding; removes a range limit on Washington's Reagan National Airport by granting exceptions to certain Western cities; lifts slot restrictions at Chicago O'Hare from 2002 and at New York's two airports from 2007, and grants a controversial rise in airport passenger facility charges. It does not, though, authorise a "performance-based" air traffic management organisation.
Source: Flight International
