US commercial airline enplanements should rise this year, fuelled by growth in regional airlines as mainline enplanements are expected to fall, according to the latest annual forecast from the US FAA.
The new data, released today by the FAA as part of its annual forecast conference in Washington, DC, predicts that domestic passenger enplanements will increase by only 0.5% in 2010, with growth occurring in the regional carrier sector only. Mainline airlines will see enplanements decrease 0.9% this year, says the FAA, followed by an average annual increase of 2.4% through 2030.
Total enplanements -- mainlines plus regionals -- is expected to increase an average of 2.5% per year through 2030, with the industry reaching the 1 billion passengers per year threshold in 2023, two years later than predicted in the agency's 2009 forecast, and seven years delayed from the 2008 outlook. The traffic lag closely parallels a slower than anticipated recovery in US gross domestic product for 2010, which the FAA now expects to grow at 1.5% rather than 2.4%.
Also slower to recover will be airport operations, which the agency now predicts will decrease 2.7% to 51.5 million this year rather than increasing 1.5% as projected in last year's forecast. Long term, the FAA expects total operations to begin growing at an average annual rate of 1.5% starting in 2011, totalling 69.6 million operations per year in 2030.
US passenger and cargo airlines fared much better this past year, according to the FAA, with a combined operating profit of $755 million in 2009 compared to a $2 billion loss in 2008. Though operating revenues decreased 16.1% in 2009, associated operating expenses also dropped 17.4%.
Fleet growth to support the increase in enplanements will consist of 1,676 new aircraft for mainline carriers through 2030, increasing the fleet size to 5,342 aircraft from 3,666 aircraft in 2009, predicts the FAA. Regionals are expected to add 789 new aircraft through 2030, boosting the fleet size from 2,612 aircraft in 2009 to 3,401 in 2030. Regional jets, numbering 1,710 in 2009, will grow to 2,441 in 2030, with all of the new aircraft in the 70-90-seat category, says the FAA.
The cargo fleet is expected to grow from 854 aircraft in 2009 to 1,531 aircraft in 2030 to support an anticipated 5% per year average growth in domestic and international air cargo registered ton miles (RTMs).
Though somewhat slower than previously expected, FAA says the long term growth outlook bodes well for its satellite navigation-based next generation air transportation system (NextGen). "This forecast makes a very strong business case for NextGen," says FAA Administrator Randy Babbitt. "Without [it], we won't be able to handle the increased demand for service that this forecast anticipates."
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
