As pace of orders quickens, Boeing may up production
Boeing says the case for pushing the 787 production rate to record levels of between 14 and 16 a month is growing stronger amid continuing signs of customer interest and ongoing negotiations for up to 1,000 more aircraft.
Passing the 405 aircraft commitments level at the show with an order from leasing company Pegasus, Boeing vice-president and 787 general manager Mike Bair says: "We were thinking this would slow down, but if anything the pace is picking up." Bair says the backlog is committed through the first half of 2012, despite efforts to increase the number of early deliveries from 2008.
Despite the evident pressure, Bair says that Boeing will not rush into accelerating the rate too early, or beyond its currently scheduled ramp-up plan. "We're between one and one-and-a-half years away from a hard deadline on when to decide, but we'll probably make a decision before then," says Bair.
The company's plan to deliver 112 aircraft in the 2008-9 period remains unchanged, and 2010-11 will be the "first year" for any possible dramatic production ramp-up, he adds. "There's no question we'll be increasing the rate beyond what we were originally anticipating."
Although Boeing never formally acknowledges current or projected production rate information, Flight International understands the initial rate will launch at four a month, rising to six a month within one year. This will then increase to 10 a month in 2010 under the current production acceleration plan agreed after an initial surge study conducted last year. The further rate increase is a more difficult decision as it requires more investment from the suppliers, and will involve the setting up of a second line at Everett.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes president Alan Mulally says: "We are continuing to look at production rates. In many areas we're in a better position than where we were on other programmes. The issues are where we are on the initial production increases." Mulally adds that "we're also in negotiations for nearly 1,000 more 787s with another 30 customers". Bair says the bulk of talks are with airlines looking to replace around "a little over 1,000 767s and 600-700 A300/A310s and A330s. That's around 1,500-1,600 aircraft, mostly in the -8 size category, plus growth opportunities. In the future we expect a roughly 50:50 split between -8s and -9s and a smaller number of -3s."
Addressing the ongoing weight issue, Bair acknowledges the aircraft is "over target" to the tune of between 2% and 3%.
■ The first 787 demonstration wing box is ready for testing at Boeing's development centre in Seattle, Washington.
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| Ready for test: 787 demonstration wing box is at Seattle |
Source: Flight International
