By Guy Norris at Farnborough
New A350 heralds change for General Electric and Rolls-Royce
What a difference a year can make in the big commercial engine world. At the Paris air show in June 2005, General Electric was storming ahead with the lead position on the Airbus A350 and Rolls-Royce was struggling to gain even a foothold on the future twinjet.
At Farnborough 2006 the position was about as reversed as it is possible to be - R-R signed the first engine agreement with Airbus for the relaunched A350 XWB, while GE signalled that it does not even intend to offer a powerplant for the heaviest -1000 variant. The manufacturer's GEnx will almost certainly be proposed however for the A350-800/900 family members.
The dramatic decision by Airbus to go back to the drawing board with the A350 to embrace the Boeing 777-200ER as well as 787 markets has dropped a large stone into the engine millpond and the effects will doubtless ripple on for years. Although some of the longer-term effects can only be guessed at, there have already been significant developments. One of the biggest waves has been the emergence of the Engine Alliance as a potential contender to power the -1000. While theoretically offering GE a way into the top end of the Airbus twin-jet project without compromising its loyalty to Boeing and the 777 Long Rangers with the GE90-110/115, the GP7200 growth also offers Pratt & Whitney a far more vital door to the big engine market next decade.
Yet given GE's growing market dominance with its exclusive 777LR/747-8 GEnx agreements and successful 787 GEnx programme, there is little doubt the Alliance is more important to P&W than it is to GE. Beyond upgrades to the existing PW4000 models and a late flourish of A330/747-400 sales, the future of P&W's big fan ambitions now lay squarely in the GP arena. The GP7200's first flight on the A380, long delayed by nacelle and other systems issues beyond the scope of the engine programme, could be coming up in August, and sales have been significant, including the recent win at UPS.
But what of GE? Would not the same factors apply and provide a cost-effective shared solution for both the A350 and eventual A380-900 models? The answer is far from clear cut and the silent majority at GE's Ohio headquarters may well be saying "no". To grow the GP7200 for the A350-1000 will be no cheap or simple affair, particularly given the leap forward required by Airbus. Second, and perhaps more significantly, the Alliance would have to run the tedious gauntlet of anti-trust commissions on both sides of the Atlantic.
Pre-conditions
The GP7200 was originally given the all-clear based on the pre-conditions it would only ever be applied to four-engined designs seating 450 upwards. Although the Alliance began an effort to have these clauses lifted for what turned out to be a stillborn 767 concept to counter the A330, no such campaign has yet been carried out. If the Alliance shareholders opt to pursue the A350, they should probably get a move on. It took the European Commission three years to give its blessing for the original joint venture. "I'd never underestimate the European Union competition committee, and Rolls-Royce doesn't exactly send in a note in favour. They tend to send in briefs saying it is a creeping merger," says Engine Alliance president Bruce Hughes.
Other factors threaten the GP initiative. Although publicly played down by both sides, the enmity between GE and P&W has reached new heights in recent months. The main cause has been the launch of P&W's aftermarket parts gambit in the CFM56-3 market, the first foray by an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) into another's territory. At a corporate level, the atmosphere has been made even frostier by the vitriolic exchanges on Capitol Hill between the two companies over funding of the competing F135/F136 engines for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. There is certainly no love lost between GE and P&W at the best of times, as both sides admit, but these recent trends have added to the strain.
"Our job at the Engine Alliance is to make sure we don't get involved in all that," says Hughes, who adds that the very existence of the alliance is a testament to what can be done. "Ten years ago nobody thought we could do an engine together, let alone certify it. We know how to work a joint venture where the parent companies don't necessarily get along together all the time."
Lady in waiting
Hughes says the immediate priority is for GE to decide whether the GP7200 option is on for the A350. "We need parent company approval and a business case that works, as well as clearance from the EU and Federal Trade Commission. But the first brick that has to fall into place is that GE has to finish its negotiations with Airbus and to understand what they're doing before we get approval. If the volume isn't there then the Engine Alliance is the preferred option. That's why the door isn't shut, but it's a bit awkward because for the moment we're a lady in waiting," he adds.
To help solidify the potential A350 business case within the Engine Alliance, the new powerplant could be integrated into the growth architecture plan now being sketched out for the A380-900 stretch. "We have to evolve the engine for the A380, and if we have an A350 engine also, we could marry those together. The engine could have an increased fan size, larger core and an additional low-pressure turbine stage," says Hughes. The configuration would build on the GEnx and PW-EXX - P&W's technically highly rated, but losing bid for the 787 - with features already used in the GP7200.
For R-R, going it alone on the A380 and without a sole-source agreement to hold it back on the competing 777, the A350 XWB could be the breakthrough it has been looking for. Not only does the redesign provide the UK manufacturer with an opportunity to close the gap on GE, but it also simultaneously allows it to develop a competitor for the Engine Alliance powerplant on the future A380-900 and an engine that will power any A330/A340 successors. More speculatively, the new Trent could even provide it with a re-engining option for future 777s and A330s. Given the events of the past 12 months, it seems nothing can be ruled out. ■
Source: Flight International
