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Airbus’s decision to slash the production rate on the A380 is the inevitable result of a clash between long lead times for the type and the airframer’s policy of avoiding building ‘white-tail’ aircraft.
The airframer has not secured a substantial order for the A380 for 29 months, since lessor Amedeo signed for 20 in February 2014.
Prior to the Amedeo deal the last order had been firmed in December 2013 when the type’s most loyal customer, Dubai-based Emirates, added another 50.
At the time of the Emirates deal the A380 backlog stood at 182.
But the backlog has declined to 126, even taking account of the Amedeo agreement, with orders for just a handful of aircraft received since.
The backlog is also weaker than the treble-digit figure indicates.
Virgin Atlantic’s order for six remains in doubt, despite the attempt by chief executive Craig Kreeger to add an optimistic A380 footnote to the airline’s decision to acquire A350-1000s.
Russian carrier Transaero’s collapse has left its order for A380s in limbo, while Malaysia Airlines has been seeking to sell or lease out its own fleet of six. Air France has also disclosed that it no longer plans to take its two outstanding aircraft.
Ten more aircraft originally bound for Hong Kong Airlines were subsequently delisted from the carrier’s order backlog, although they remain on Airbus’s books, officially allocated to an undisclosed customer.
Although deliveries of the 20 aircraft for Amedeo had originally been due to begin this year, no customer for the lessor’s aircraft has been identified.
Of the backlog’s balance, Emirates accounts for the majority, with 61 aircraft still due to be delivered to the Middle Eastern operator, with Qantas, Qatar Airways and Singapore Airlines among those still to receive their full complement.
With the A380 demanding long lead times, Airbus has been struggling to fill near-term production slots.
Airbus had originally envisaged a monthly production rate of four aircraft for the A380, but the order intake has been insufficient to reach this level. The airframer’s strategy of avoiding producing aircraft that it cannot deliver has forced it to examine potential production-rate cuts on the type.
The manufacturer has taken the decision to cut deliveries to 12 aircraft per year from 2018, far below the current break-even threshold – a level achieved only last year.
Airbus chief executive Fabrice Bregier is standing by the company’s prediction that the market for the A380 will emerge, describing this as a “given” owing to the relentless growth of air transport and the limitations of airport capacity.
The airframer has particularly argued that the type is necessary for service to destinations it classifies as ‘mega-cities’ – those handling over 10,000 daily long-haul passengers.
Airbus’s latest global market forecast lists 55 cities which meet this criteria, and says the A380 serves 38 of them. The airframer claims 47 of the 55 are schedule-constrained.
It predicts that, over the next 20 years, the number of ‘mega-cities’ will increase to 93. Airbus also believes that there is a market for nearly 1,500 high-capacity aircraft – those with at least 450 seats – including the A380.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
