A recent US Department of Defense assessment about the expansion of China's air forces on the Taiwan Strait has been given added impetus by recently disclosed Chinese combat aircraft production projections.
In late June, a Pentagon report on China's People's Liberation Army modernisation warned that by 2005, "the balance of air power across the Taiwan Strait could begin to shift in China's favour," (Flight International 4-10 July).
US and Taiwanese sources note that production projections to 2005 mean the PLA air force (PLAAF)could be equipped with about 290 fourth generation fighter and attack aircraft, compared with Taiwan's 340.
Expected Chinese production by 2005 could include up to 30 indigenous Chengdu J-10s - although the aircraft has had a difficult development. The PLAAF will also have the 48 Sukhoi Su-27 Flankers delivered from Russia and 80 J-11s - Su-27s built at in Shenyang. About eight J-11s have been built, but an ambitious production surge is necessary as the programme has experienced difficulties in getting underway.
By 2005, strike fighters will include up to 60 Sukhoi Su-30MKKs, which will give the PLAAF an effective all-weather strike fighter and improve its precision guided munitions capability.
The first Su-30MKK was delivered last month. It is also expected that the PLAAF and PLA navy air force may acquire up to 85 indigenous Xian JH-7 fighter-bombers. This has also suffered a lengthy development programme but has been given an increased emphasis in recent years. An electronic warfare version of the JH-7 may also be under development.
The PLA may receive up to 120 more Shenyang J-8II Finback fighters, including 90 J-8IIDs equipped for air-to-air refuelling. The PLAAF could also retain hundreds of older Chengdu J-7s.
Source: Flight International
