GUY NORRIS / LOS ANGELES
Production changes mulled as deliveries hit all-time low
Boeing is facing a 757 sales crisis, as its backlog falls to an all-time low of 36 aircraft. The manufacturer is putting maximum effort into sales campaigns, particularly for -300 stretch and special purpose versions, and is considering production changes in an effort to ride out the order drought.
Boeing, which had delivered 21 757s this year by the end of July, is due to complete a further eight aircraft in 2002, all of which are -300s for US operators - six for Northwest Airlines and the balance for ATA. Just four of the 36 757s on backlog are the baseline -200 model.
Although this year's production supports a rate of almost 2.5 aircraft a month, the current backlog for 2003 deliveries will hit an all-time low of 15 aircraft unless new orders are obtained, or delivery positions brought forward.
Without these changes, this would cut the rate to around 1.25 a month. Just seven aircraft are presently booked for 2004 deliveries, five of these being -300s for Continental Airlines that have already been deferred. A further six are booked for 2005, all -300s for Continental. Only four -200 orders are logged, all for Air 2000 which is scheduled to take three in 2003 and the last in 2004.
Boeing admits that it is "hurting" and acknowledges that the aircraft's short-term vulnerability is tied to the uncertain fortunes of its biggest customers, the US majors and larger European charter operators. Although the 757-300 is widely seen as the ideal replacement for 200- to 250-seat widebodies such as the 767-200 or Airbus A310, the largest fleets requiring replacement belong to American Airlines and United Airlines, neither of which is in a position to consider new equipment. "It will be up to our customers what will happen," says Boeing.
The near-term sales picture is expected to become even bleaker in September when the first 11 of 34 US Airways 757-200s are expected to fly into storage in Mojave, California. These aircraft will double the number of 757s already shown to be idle, although according to the Airclaims CASE database 18 of these are ex-British Airways undergoing conversion to freighters or scheduled for conversion.
The 757 backlog around August traditionally hovered between 80 and 110 through the 1980s before soaring to 287 in 1990. A gradual decline from 186 in 1993 continued until 1999 when the backlog dipped to 68. Thanks to the -300 it recovered slightly to 73 last August, but has since declined. The current 757 orderbook totals 1,050 with 1,014 delivered.
Source: Flight International
