Military airframer Lockheed Martin is ramping up deliveries of the F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter after a year-long hiatus, and while the newest jets are approved for flight training it will be some time before they are certified for full combat operations.
Speaking on the company’s third-quarter earnings call on 22 October, chief executive James Taiclet said Lockheed delivered 48 F-35s between July and September of this year.
“We expect to deliver 90 to 110 aircraft in 2024,” Taiclet projects.
That marks the second year in a row that F-35 deliveries have fallen well below Lockheed’s annual production capacity of 156 aircraft – the result of a year-long halt on new deliveries announced by the Pentagon in July 2023.
That remaining balance for 2024 will come entirely in the final quarter, as Lockheed did not turn over any F-35s in the first half of the year, while that pause was still in effect.
The Pentagon finally resumed accepting new-build jets in July of this year, when pilot training needs and concerns from overseas allies finally forced a change.
At issue are technical issues with the latest F-35 hardware and software configuration, known as Technical Refresh 3 (TR-3).
Lockheed had begun producing TR-3-configured F-35s before completing flight certification for the new systems, which proved far more challenging than expected. The airframer continued producing jets at its full rate throughout the delivery pause, causing aircraft to pile up outside the Fort Worth, Texas assembly line.
For this reason, F-35 deliveries in 2025 will actually exceed Lockheed’s annual production rate, as the company hands over both newly-assembled jets and the excess inventory accumulated during the delivery freeze.
Taiclet says the company plans to turn over 180 fighters per year in 2025 and beyond.
“We will be able to deliver a mix of aircraft above the 156 production rate for the next few years,” he notes.
That is welcome news particularly for European operators, several of whom have received only a small portion of their planned F-35 fleets, with others still awaiting their initial batch of fighters.
In July, Denmark repatriated six of its F-35As stationed in the USA for pilot and maintainer training, citing delays in receiving additional fighters. Copenhagen had already moved to divest its ageing fleet of Lockheed F-16A fighters, with some aircraft donated to Ukraine and others sold to Argentina.
Earlier this month, Norway flagged issues created by the delay in certificating TR-3 F-35s, including the late delivery of 12 aircraft that had been expected in 2023-2024 and impacts to certifying the Kongsberg Joint Strike Missile.
Taiclet says Lockheed is taking extraordinary steps to address the needs of its customers in recovering from the disruption.
“We’re working on a weekly basis right now to prioritise specific aircraft deliveries, literally one at a time,” he reveals.
Despite that progress, the newest TR-3-configuration jets are still not certificated for full combat duty. Under a deal with the Pentagon, Lockheed developed a short-term fix that allows TR-3 F-35s to fly with a “combat training capability” that falls short of frontline service.
While the company is being paid for the jets it delivers under that agreement, the Pentagon is withholding $5 million per aircraft until the TR-3 package is fully certificated.
As to when that milestone can be expected, Taiclet offers a somewhat contradictory message.
“Flight testing continues, with 95% of combat capabilities validated and additional capabilities progressing,” he said in prepared remarks during the investor call.
However, while taking questions from financial analysts, the CEO later said certification and release of the TR-3 software “is going to take some time”.
“There are a lot of test points there, and those test points are going to be developed not just in the fourth quarter, but they’re going to be developed over the course of 2025 as well,” Taiclet says.
Those test points will cover evaluation and approval for each of the many weapon systems deployed by the F-35 before the full combat capability for TR-3 is certificated.
