At least one European government has begun to openly question whether the USA can be considered a reliable supplier of arms in light of Washington’s recent geopolitical turn away from traditional allies on the continent.
In a 13 March interview with newspaper Publico, Portuguese defence minister Nuno Melo suggested Lisbon may need to look elsewhere for its fighter modernisation initiative.
“We cannot be oblivious to the geopolitical environment,” Melo says. “The recent position of the United States, in the context of NATO and at the international geo-strategic level, has to make us think about the best options, because the predictability of our allies is a greater asset to take into account.”
Since taking office in January, US President Donald Trump and his subordinates have berated European allies for not spending enough on defence and suggested the USA would not come to the aid of laggards.
Trump himself has openly expressed a desire to absorb the territory of two treaty allies – Canada and Denmark – including on 13 March while seated next to NATO secretary general Mark Rutte during a White House visit.
“I think it will happen,” Trump said of annexing Greenland, the semi-autonomous Arctic island controlled by Denmark. ”We need that for international security,” he added.
Rutte deflected, saying he does not want to “drag” the trans-Atlantic military alliance into the matter. Individual NATO members, however, are taking note.
“We have to believe that, in all circumstances, these allies will be on our side,” Melo says.
The Portuguese air force currently operates 21 ageing Lockheed Martin F-16A fourth-generation fighters, the oldest of which has been in service for more than 41 years, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.
While the service had been looking to replace those with Lockheed’s latest F-35 stealth platform, Melo says the government in Lisbon may now choose to look elsewhere.
“There are several options that have to be considered, namely in the context of European production and also taking into account the return that these options may have for the Portuguese economy,” he notes.
Portugal is not an official an F-35 programme member, with Lisbon having made no formal selection of its next fighter nor signed any procurement contract or formal letter of offer and acceptance.
Melo declines to address specific alternatives under consideration. However, likely candidates would be the Dassault Rafale produced in France and the latest Gripen E/F from Swedish manufacturer Saab.
Both European jets come with a higher initial price than the standard F-35A conventional take-off and landing model, but offer generally lower operating and maintenance costs.
A move away from the F-35, if it were to happen, is about more than chastising Washington for the recent harsh words. Melo says bluntly that he has concerns about whether this or future presidential administrations could use a reliance on American equipment to coerce European governments to one end or another.
“This ally of ours, which for decades has always been predictable, may bring limitations in use, maintenance, components – everything that has to do with ensuring that aircraft will be operational and will be used in all kinds of scenarios,” the defence minister notes.
His comments come after a week of rampant rumours on the internet about a possible so-called “kill switch” installed into the American-made F-35s by Lockheed that could disable aircraft of an operator that falls out of favour with Washington.
Lockheed did not directly refute the unsubstantiated claim, instead pointing to statements of support from defence officials with European F-35 customers.
“We have no indication that this is possible,” says Belgian defence chief Derniere Heure. “The F-35 is not a remote-controlled aircraft.”
Likewise, the Swiss defence ministry pushed back on reporting from Switzerland about the kill switch claim, saying “a remote control or ‘blocking’ of the F-35A fighter jets, for example through external interventions in the electronics, is not possible”.
While the kill switch may be a myth, F-35 customers are certainly dependent on Lockheed for maintenance, repair and overhaul support, through contracts managed globally by the Pentagon’s foreign military sales system.
Although highly capable, the stealthy F-35 is notoriously tricky to maintain in a fully mission-capable state, which is sure to generate consternation amongst foreign operators concerned about the USA’s political shift.
More likely than some fatal code embedded in the F-35’s software is that politicians in Washington could, at some point, choose the withhold US-sourced parts or technical support, despite existing contracts guaranteeing such services.
Even then, European operators could conceivably find ways to keep their aircraft flying. The F-35 programme employs a global network of suppliers, many of whom are located within Europe’s domestic aerospace industry.
“As part of our government contracts, we deliver all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft,” Lockheed says.
Belgian defence chief Heure notes the programme “relies on worldwide logistical support, with spare parts circulating between user countries”.
Despite those reassurances, the topic of abandoning the popular stealth fighter is likely not going away.
Several major F-35 customers who have not yet taken delivery of their first aircraft are in the Trump Administration’s cross hairs.
The US president has talked of annexing Canada, which plans to field 88 F-35As, and Germany is among NATO members regularly criticised for not spending enough on defence. Berlin plans to purchase 35 F-35As. The country is also home to numerous US military bases which provide an infusion of cash into Germany’s sputtering economy.
Existing F-35 customers considering an additional buy, such as the UK Royal Air Force (RAF), might also be tempted to reconsider.
London is currently in the midst of a strategic defence review, that among other issues will examine the UK’s future mix of combat aircraft. The RAF already operates 35 short take-off and vertical landing F-35Bs, with the potential to increase its total fleet to around 100 examples.
However, the UK is also a partner, alongside Italy and Japan, in the Global Combat Air Programme seeking to develop a sixth-generation fighter. A parallel effort between France, Germany and Spain called Future Combat Air System is also underway with a similar aim.
Any questions regarding American reliability could push European leaders to steer their defence investments toward such domestic sources, at the expense of traditional suppliers in North America.
