As another turbulent year nears its conclusion, there is little doubt that the world feels like an increasingly dangerous place.
While the brutal conflict in Ukraine passed its 1,000-day mark in mid-November, tensions between Russia and Kyiv’s western backers reached their highest level in many months.
Having rejected repeated requests by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for his forces to be allowed to use US-donated long-range missiles against targets inside Russia, the administration of his outgoing counterpart Joe Biden at last said yes.
While Washington and Kyiv’s other NATO supporters have threaded such a delicate path multiple times before – over the risk of perceived escalation linked to their supplying donated equipment including main battle tanks and Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters – this feels different.
Moscow’s threat of launching retaliation in an “appropriate and tangible” way against Ukraine’s backers edges us back towards a heightened, Cold War-style position of an alarming nature.
Add to that Russia’s insertion of North Korean ground troops to the almost three-year-long war, and the increasingly belligerent activities elsewhere of China and Iran, and the new age of uncertainty takes on an even greater depth.
As detailed in our annual World Air Forces report this issue, Russia’s fleet strength remains largely undiminished despite the war in Ukraine, while China’s ambitions mean that it is swiftly raising the quality of its products, and also fielding them in significant numbers.
On top of such instability, another great unknown awaits resolution: what stance will US President-elect Donald Trump take towards the likes of Moscow, Beijing and Tehran, when he returns to the Oval Office as 2025 begins?
Hardly renowned for his capacity for delicate diplomacy, Trump’s challenge will be to nudge the dial back from its increasingly Dr Strangelove-like setting.
