Is the war in Ukraine about to change course, as Kyiv’s allies prepare to start re-equipping its military with much-needed western combat aircraft?
With approaching 100 Lockheed Martin F-16s expected to be transferred by a fighter coalition including Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway, and backed by training support from Romania, the UK and the USA, the Ukrainian air force is nearing a momentous uptick in equipment capability.
Additional assets now appear likely to follow, with French President Emmanuel Macron announcing that Paris intends to also gift some of its Dassault Aviation Mirage 2000-5 interceptors to Kyiv. He pledged the equipment as world leaders – including his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky – gathered to mark the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings, which were enabled by allies gaining air superiority over the Normandy beaches.
Secondhand F-16s and Mirages will not push Russian combat aircraft from the skies above Ukraine, because they already cannot venture near its airspace without risking being shot down by surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) provided by the west. But they will represent an extra line of deterrent, and – in the case of the US-built type – strengthen Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian military targets from a safer distance.
Acting in support will be a pair of Erieye radar-equipped Saab 340 airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft, donated by Sweden. These, NATO believes, will provide a more significant effect than an earlier offer to transfer some of Stockholm’s Saab Gripen C/Ds.
Kyiv will be cautious in how it employs the slow-flying twin-turboprops, however, since they will represent high-value targets for Moscow after its loss of two Ilyushin Il-76-based AEW aircraft to Ukrainian fire. Involving the use of a concealed, forward-deployed Patriot air-defence system, the most recent of these has been described as a “SAMbush”.
If Ukraine’s defence against the invading force is to run on for some time yet, then ensuring its ability to prevent aerial intrusion is a significant advance, but it is unlikely to directly impact Moscow’s frontline forces.
With no end in sight for the conflict and Moscow having wider territorial ambitions, European nations are now moving to bolster their own fleets.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used the opening day of the ILA Berlin air show to announce a surprise order for 20 more Eurofighters, with the jets needed to maintain the Luftwaffe’s combat mass. Italy and Spain also appear poised to buy more of the multirole type.
Despite the risk of political headwinds resulting from national elections which will take place in France and the UK in late June and early July, next-generation combat air developments are also likely to receive continued strong backing.
Ukraine might soon be better-equipped to hold the Russian threat at arm’s length, but its allies are working hard to ensure that if it and other hostile actors are to be deterred – and if required engaged – then more must be done quickly to strengthen European air forces.
Military officials would note that “the enemy also has a vote”, but in this case it can also count hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons and an unpredictable leadership.
For now, helping Kyiv appears to be NATO’s best deterrent.
