Ultra-large aircraft and regional jets to move ahead, but production to slow
Max Kingsley-Jones/LONDON
Although 1999 promised some dramatic airliner developments, few came to fruition. But the stage has been set for key activities over the next 12 months - most notably in the ultra-large aircraft and regional-jet sectors.
A new high was set in 1999 for airliner shipments, with Airbus Industrie and Boeing surpassing previous records by delivering 915 aircraft between them (295 Airbuses/620 Boeings). Their tally is 16% up on the 790 airliners delivered in 1998, representing the peak of the current cycle. Boeing will cut production dramatically in 2000 and, although Airbus will increase output again, the year's tally is expected to slip back to 1998 levels.
Similar output is expected in 2001, with any further trimming by Boeing likely to be countered by a rise in European shipments.
As expected, sales tumbled in 1999, with the anticipated end-of-year tally of around 700 orders down by about one-third on the near 1,100 average of the last three years. The surprise was how orders divided, with Airbus (to the end of November) having captured around 65% of all sales.
Looking ahead to 2000, the jury is out, with some players expecting demand to be down, and others believing that further recovery of Asian markets will see fortunes improve slightly.
Airbus was helped in its 1999 campaigns by the further extension of its product line through the availability of a 100-seat A320 family derivative, the A318, while 2000 could finally see the arrival of a genuine 747 rival in the consortium's line-up, in the form of the A3XX.
The long-running row between Airbus and Boeing over the need for a giant airliner continued in 1999, but, in 2000, words will likely be transformed into deeds with the formal launch of the much-vaunted 550-seater, likely to be renamed the "A350" or perhaps "A550".
There are, however, many hurdles to cross before Airbus can make the final push into the very-large-aircraft market - not least the consortium's restructuring into a single entity and the securing of launch customers and funding commitments. If the A3XX goes ahead next year, deliveries could begin in 2005.
If Airbus moves, Boeing is ready to reciprocate with its 430/500-seat 747-400X/400X stretch family, which could be launched after the Airbus and still beat it to the market. Boeing is adamant, however, that it will not respond to Airbus moves, but rather to market demand, and the US manufacturer has more pressing needs with other product developments, which must move to a firmer footing next year.
The company still seeks launch orders for the long-range/high-capacity General Electric GE90-powered 777-200X/300X, which must get a green light early in 2000 to allow deliveries to begin in 2003.
In August, Boeing will fly the latest 737 derivative, the 737-900,which is cleared for deliveries to Alaska Airlines in around March 2001. The 767-400ER certification programme, meanwhile, will be completed, to allow deliveries of the latest stretch 767 derivative to Delta Air Lines to begin in May.
There is continued pressure for Boeing to boost the fortunes of the 757/767 family, with the recent order drought having eroded backlogs, necessitating some painful decisions on build rates. Boeing is studying longer-range derivatives, the 757-200X and 767-400ERX, to rejuvenate the programmes, and these plans could be firmed up in the next 12 months.
The company will also look to boost the fortunes of the 100-seat 717, deliveries of which have just begun. The type, inherited from McDonnell Douglas, is still not yet assured of a long-term future.
Meanwhile, developments in the market for aircraft with fewer than 100 seats continue to make headlines, with industry now seemingly gravitating around three players: Bombardier, Embraer and Fairchild. Although ATR believes it has a future building a modest number of ATR 42/72 turboprops (30 a year), and BAE Systems aims to continue the 146/Avro RJ line with its RJ-X mid-life update project, further rationalisation appears inevitable.
An Embraer/ATR tie-up is the most likely early development, through the acquisition of a stake in the Brazilian company by a French consortium, including Aerospatiale Matra.
A watershed was reached in 1999 in the evolution of the regional market from propeller-driven aircraft to jets, with shipments of the latter outnumbering turboprops for the first time, and to the tune of almost 2:1. That trend, fuelled in 1999 by the arrival of 30-seat jets from Fairchild and Embraer, will be reinforced next year and will eventually lead to all-jet fleets among some regional operators.
In product development terms, no new regional airliners are due to come on line in 2000, although the bulk of the flight testing of Bombardier's 70-seat CRJ-700 should be completed, allowing deliveries to begin in early 2001. Embraer will fly its latest ERJ-145 derivative, the ERJ-140, in June - and the company expects to receive type certification for the aircraft in February 2001.
An Avro RJ-X launch is also expected, while the new, larger, jet families from Bombardier, Embraer and Fairchild - the CRJ-900, ERJ-170/190 and 728JET programmes - should gain momentum and sales as they move towards their first flights early in the new decade.
The Russian airliner manufacturers continue to be hamstrung by a lack of funding. Projects such as the Tupolev Tu-204/214, Tu-334 and Ilyushin Il-96M/T could all meet the needs of former-Soviet airlines for new equipment, while new regional airliner designs promise better efficiencies and reliability.
The problem is that neither carriers nor airframers possess the financial wherewithal to move the programmes forward.
Source: Flight International
