The world's civil airliner market will grow over the coming decade, but that growth will be based on fragile foundations, a report published yesterday suggests.
A survey from Virginia, US-based Teal Group forecasts sales of 7,259 airliners of over 100 seats over the next decade. This compares to sales of 6,558 over the past 10 years.
However, these figures are not as good as they look, says Richard Aboulafia, Teal's vice-president, analysis. US legacy airlines are not just ailing, but brittle, having sold off many of their assets to raise cash. This gives them less resilience to deal with future downturns.
While manufacturers point to the growth of low-cost airlines as a compensating factor, these account for a market that is small by US historic standards, he says.
Chance
"If there are multiple [company] failures, there is also the real chance that for the first time, new-generation aircraft will be dumped on the market.
"These planes will be irresistible due to their low cost and youth, also cutting into the manufacturers' ambitious production plans."
Aboulafia believes that Boeing will re-establish a lead over Airbus in terms of aircraft delivered, suggesting a 54/46 split in favour of Seattle.
"Boeing is clearly back in the game," he says. "The 787 is off to a very strong start. Boeing's commitment of the necessary resources for the project has had a knock-on effect, boosting customer confidence in Boeing and its overall product lines. The weak dollar helps, too.
"Airbus's response to the 787, the A350, looks less ambitious. But given constraints on Airbus's new product development spending (largely because of the much less relevant A380) it's not a bad compromise. The A350 could also give Airbus an effective competitor to the Boeing 777-200ER."
ALAN DRON
Source: Flight Daily News
