Planning to expand your long-haul freighter fleet? Not placed your aircraft order yet? Then you could be disappointed. A definite shortage of widebody freighters is emerging, which could last until the end of the decade.
Just six months ago, it all looked different. The Boeing 747-400F freighter conversion programmes of Boeing and Israel Aircraft Industries, both launched late in 2003, were experiencing strong demand, with order books full for both companies until 2008 or 2009. But there was still the option of converting MD-11s, or buying new 747 freighters.
Just a few months ago there was even talk of the Boeing 747 production line having to close, with forward orders down to just 22 freighters and four passenger aircraft.
But in just a few months, all has changed. Several airlines – including Aeroflot, DAS Air, and lessor Gemini – which were hoping to get MD-11s for conversion have found the aircraft not so easy to come by. Only some 45 remain in the passenger fleet, operated by carriers such as Delta Air Lines, Finnair, KLM, Martinair, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Thai Airways and Varig.
FedEx and UPS have been aggressively snapping up any of these they can find. “We have given up on the MD-11,” says DAS Air’s commercial director Andy Leslie. “Every time we get a sniff of one, UPS gets it.” Meanwhile the 747-200F, for long the workhorse of the air cargo industry, is coming up for retirement.
That has led DAS and other carriers to think the unthinkable, and consider purchasing new 747-400 freighters – a major step for a cargo industry that has generally baulked at the upfront investment new aircraft require.
But others have got there first. In July UPS ordered eight -400Fs, while China Cargo ordered two and lessor Guggenheim six -400ERFs (extended range freighters). Jade Cargo International, the joint venture between Lufthansa and Shenzhen Airlines, also confirmed an order for six -400ERFs in September.
That leaves Boeing with a backlog of 42 aircraft, enough, says Thomas Hoang, its regional director marketing-cargo, to keep it going to 2007 or 2008, when it hopes to launch the 747 advanced freighter. Cargolux is so far the only carrier to publicly confirm its interest in this aircraft, but Hoang says talks continue with others.
Smarter carriers are now looking to the 777 freighter also due for launch in 2008. In September, Avion Group, owners of Icelandic lessors Air Atlanta, recently became the second customer for this type after Air France, ordering four with two options. Abu Dhabi’s Etihad is also considering the aircraft.
The high percentage of leasing companies ordering IAI’s 747-400 conversion also suggests that several investment companies have spotted the opportunity a widebody shortage could present. Airlines that have not placed their orders could find their expansion plans stymied in coming years.
Source: Airline Business
