NO-ONE EXPECTS a return to the general-aviation industry's past highs, certainly not any time soon, but after a reassuring 1996, general-aviation manufacturers are certain of a robust 1997. The main reason is the number of new aircraft types which will be first delivered in 1997 - ranging from the Cessna 172 piston single to the Gulfstream V business jet. While planned deliveries of some 1,000 new Cessna singles in 1997 will make the biggest difference to the year-end shipment numbers, Gulfstream's plan to double its output will have the greatest impact on the 1997 billing figures.
Gulfstream will not be alone. While 1997 will be the first full year that the US company has built two large business-jet types simultaneously - a total of almost 50 GIV-SPs and GVs - Dassault will also be delivering no fewer than four different corporate-jet types for the first time in its history. The French company plans to produce a record 56 Falcon 50EXs, 2000s, 900Bs and 900EXs in 1997 - the first full year of 50EX and 900EXproduction.
At the lighter end, Bombardier will begin deliveries of the Learjet 45 by mid-1997 and will by then be producing three different types. With advance sales of 100 aircraft, the 45 is likely to add substantially to Learjet's shipments in 1997. Similarly, Cessna will make first deliveries of both the Citation Bravo and fast-selling Excel in1997 - the first year for some time (because its product line has been undergoing continuous renovation) that the company has produced a full range of business jets - the CitationJet, Bravo, Ultra, Excel, VII and X.
Bombardier substantially increased sales of its Canadair Challenger large corporate-jet in 1996, and hopes to sustain that growth in 1997. Its first Global Express long-range business jets are to be delivered to the completion centre before the end of 1997, but will not make much impact on the year-end figures. Raytheon, similarly, is looking to growth in sales of its existing light Beechjet 400A and mid-sized Hawker 800XP, while flight testing of the new Premier I light business-jet gets under way in 1997.
Also due to enter certification flight-testing in 1997 are the Sino Swearingen Aircraft SJ30-2 light business-jet, and the VisionAire Vantage and Century Aerospace Century Jet - the latter pair both single-turbofan business jets, the market for which remains uncertain. More assured of success are the Cirrus Design SR20 and Lancair LC40, new all-composite light aircraft which are scheduled for certification and first deliveries towards the end of 1997.
While the prognosis for the industry's performance over the year ahead is generally good, there are some challenges that will come to a head in 1997. The most immediate will be the introduction of reduced vertical-separation minima on North Atlantic routes, requiring business aircraft, as well as airliners, to be suitably equipped and approved or be denied certain flight levels. Next may come the attempt by the European Joint Aviation Authorities to require business-aircraft operators flying overwater to comply with airline-standard extended-range twinjet-operations requirements - regarded as a near-impossibility by industry.
Perhaps the biggest challenge, however, will be posed by USefforts to reform the Federal Aviation Adminstration, and particularly by proposals to replace the airline-ticket tax now imposed to fund the FAAwith a user fee levied on any aircraft operated within the USairspace system. This could adversely impact both general- and business-aviation users as they cannot recover the fee by passing it on to their passangers. Canada, which privatised its air-traffic-control system in late 1996, is already moving towards replacing the current ticket tax with a user fee. In Canada's case, however, business-aircraft users are among the new owners of the airspace system and therefore have a say in setting the charges.
Source: Flight International