As the Airbus A380 prepares for its first flight, is the era of the Superjumbo ready to take off?
During the first few months of 2005 the eyes of the aviation world will be on Toulouse. More than a decade of development will culminate within the next couple of months in the first flight of the double-deck Airbus A380. A spectacular unveiling has already been announced for mid January. After a 14-month testing and certification period, Singapore Airlines will put the new type into commercial service in April 2006.
The sparring about whether there is a hub-to-hub market for such a giant aircraft or, as Boeing believes, one of fragmentation towards more point-to-point services, will soon be resolved. Boeing quickly took Virgin Atlantic's postponement of its A380 deliveries as confirmation of its stance, although the UK airline insists that the reasons were concerns about the readiness of some airports on its network, most prominently Los Angeles, and about timely supply of interior cabin furnishings and equipment.
For its part, Boeing is still insistent that the future of long-haul growth lies in higher frequency point-to-point service rather than the traditional hub system. It is therefore betting on the new mid-size 7E7 programme.For more than a decade Boeing has grappled with the concept of a new large aircraft to succeed the 747. At one point in the early 1990s it even took part in a joint study with Airbus to investigate the market for very large aircraft. Since then there have been a host of Boeing proposals for revamped 747s, which came to nothing. However, Boeing concedes that airline customers are now applying pressure for the company to take a decision in the next few months over whether or not it will indeed launch in the large aircraft market, so allowing them to get on with their fleet planning.
Meanwhile, orders for the ageing 747 have dried to a trickle. While the 747 freighter remains popular, Boeing has not received an order for a passenger 747-400 since November 2002.
Boeing looks on
Whether Boeing will eventually follow the A380 lead remains an open question, but its public statements have suggested a deep reluctance. Its latest forecast suggest that aircraft with over 400 seats such as the 747 and A380 will capture only 4% of the market over the next 20 years.
It is also worth noting that Harry Stonecipher, called back out of retirement to head Boeing a year ago, was responsible for shelving proposals for the double-deck MD-12 during his time as chief executive at McDonnell Douglas (MDC) during the early 1990s. MDCwent on to be absorbed by Boeing, but Stonecipher has shown no signs of changing his mind on the large aircraft market, missing no opportunity to take a swipe at the A380.
Airbus strongly believes that future growth will be achieved through a mix of both fragmentation and hub consolidation. It points to the present concentration of 80% of 747 operations at just 37 airports, growing congestion and the establishment of global airline alliances, the logic of which is based on hub-to-hub operations, as reasons behind developing the A380. Other key drivers are given as environmental pressures and operational efficiency demands. Richard Carcaillet, director product marketing A380, insists that "the aircraft resulted from market demand, not from any lofty ambition of Airbus".
Airlines on the whole seem to agree. Since it invited 20 of the world's largest passenger airlines in 1996 to participate in the design definition of the A380, then referred to as the A3XX, Airbus has had 175 meetings with these carriers. All three global alliances, oneworld, SkyTeam and Star, are strongly represented. Thirteen of the largest air-cargo carriers also participated in developing the freighter version, the design of which was due to be frozen by the end of 2004. "The vast majority of the original group has stayed with us throughout," says Carcaillet, adding that meetings now focus on achieving maturity of the design at entry into service.
To date, Airbus has 139 firm orders and commitments, still some way short of the notional break-even figure of around 250 of the $285 million aircraft, but a figure that Airbus believes to be satisfactory given that the aircraft has not yet flown. With options, Airbus has passed the 200-aircraft mark. By comparison, Boeing had 148 firm orders for the 747 by the time of its first flight in February 1969. Twelve airlines and one leasing company have signed for 122 A380-800 passenger and 17 A380-800F freighter variants (see table over page), but there are still a number of target airlines around the world that have not yet committed to the aircraft.
The absence of some well-known names from the orderbook can be attributed to their poor financial health, especially in North America. Only two USairlines still have active, if reducing, 747 fleets - Northwest and the currently bankrupt United Airlines. They will probably stick with smaller aircraft, such as the Boeing 777 and the new 7E7, together with the Airbus A330. The same may be said for Air Canada, which languished in bankruptcy protection until the completion of a major restructuring programme in October. As growth resumes, however, North American carriers too may eventually be tempted by the A380's higher capacity and promised economic gains.
Japanese carriers remain firmly wedded to Boeing, but it will be interesting to see how long Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways can persist with high-density 747-400Ds on domestic routes, when there is an aircraft that can carry more passengers at greater comfort and at substantially reduced operating costs. "We already have aircraft with close to 600-seat capacity on domestic routes and we see no need for replacement with the A380 in the near to mid term," says JAL. "We have enough aircraft of big capacity to cope with domestic demand for several years. Similarly, on international routes, we have no pressing need for the A380 for the time being - although we don't want to dismiss the possibility of eventually introducing that aircraft. If competitors introduce the aircraft on routes into Japan and get a very positive customer reaction, then we may review our position."
Airbus hopes the principal Chinese airlines will soon commit to the A380, a move expected since the October 2004 visit to Beijing of French president Jacques Chirac. Taiwan's EVA Air and China Airlines could be next. Oneworld founder member Cathay Pacific continues to participate in airline meetings with Airbus and is waiting cautiously in the wings. The same can be said for British Airways. "Any 747 customer is a potential customer for the A380," says Carcaillet.
Airbus has staked its reputation on the performance of the A380 as guaranteed to its customers. What it calls a "quantum leap in efficiency from a clean sheet design" translates into stated gains of 15% in direct operating cost per seat on a 11,000km (6,000nm) sector and 20% per tonne, while providing space for 35% more passengers, a 29% increase in structural payload to 150t and, at 1,100m3 (38,800ft3), 50% more space.
These figures are measured against the 747-400, says Airbus, and are guaranteed for aircraft at entry into service. But a key maturity target is a massive 24% reduction in direct operating costs as well as 99% operational reliability within two years of entry into service. Airbus says it has been able to drive down costs with technology through the application of new systems, fuel-efficient engines and lightweight materials, leading to lower fuel burn and reduced maintenance costs.
Weight and see
The media has been awash with speculation about a weight problem with the A380 which, if not solved, would incur severe financial penalties for Airbus, not to mention the embarrassment of failing to live up to its promises and consequent impact on its business. While Airbus admits that the A380 is at this time "just below 2%" over the weight at which some airlines have ordered the aircraft, Carcaillet categorically states that this will be eliminated by the time the aircraft goes into service. This present overweight equates to 4t of the roughly 240t weight target without cabin furnishings, fuel and passengers, or put another way, a payload reduction of around 50 passengers.
Design adjustments over the testing period and a possible increase in composites, which already account for 25% of the structure, will ensure the required weight reduction, Carcaillet says. He also confirms that the increased use of aluminium lithium, intended primarily for the freighter version, will also be applied to the passenger model.
The financial benefits for airlines in terms of lower operating costs compared with the 747, and commonality across the whole range of the Airbus fleet are clear. But while this is unlikely to translate into lower fares, what improvements can the passenger expect from travel in the A380? Airbus claims 50% more floor space than that of the 747-400, a wider cross-section, particularly marked on the upper level, at least 25mm (1in) wider seats in economy and a minimum 10% more room for carry-on luggage. All this, it says, means "noticeably better comfort in every class". Airbus points to a wide consultation on cabin design, involving 2,000h of passenger interviews, nine international design teams and five major airlines, together with extensive testing and several cabin mock-ups.
So far, airlines are keeping everyone guessing on their plans for wooing the passenger with product innovation. But competition will become fierce once the aircraft goes into service as airlines battle for advantage. Only Emirates, the largest A380 customer, has hinted at possible configurations. President Tim Clark says the projected unit seat cost advantage would enable the airline to "take out seats and create some very good passenger features". He indicates that a two-class configuration would have in the region of 650 seats, while on lower-density, ultra-long-range flights - such as Dubai-Sydney and Dubai-New York - the A380 would be configured for 480-490 passengers.
Cargo airlines will find the A380 a step up from the 747-400F. The basic A380-800F is projected to fly 10,400km non-stop with a payload of 150t. Direct operating costs per tonne would be 20% lower, measured over a 7,400km sector at 80% gross volume. Compared with a typical 116t payload carried by the 747-400F, the difference between the two aircraft becomes still more evident. According to Airbus, the A380 will be able to carry that particular payload 13,500km, opposed to the 7,800km range of the Boeing aircraft.
Airports have been quick to voice concerns over the airside handling of the A380 and the costs involved. But according to Thomas Burger, senior marketing analyst A380, the issue of airport compatibility has to be put in context. "The A380 is not the monster everyone thinks it is and is very little different from the 747," he says, pointing to the results of wide consultation since 1994 with 60 airports, Airports Council International (ACI) ICAO, the FAA and national regulatory authorities.
The outcome of these consultations was the 80m2 (860ft2) box and 25m (82ft) height, derived from ICAO code F/FAA Group 6 generic design criteria for very large aircraft and ACI requirements, in which the A380 was to fit. This has been achieved and, emphasises Carcaillet, the box limitations "will also cover possible future stretches of the aircraft". Burger lists several airside aspects that, he says, "will dispel the myths about the A380 being the bad boy on the block". The shorter gear base will provide better manoeuvrability than the 777 and Airbus A340-600, the latter being longer than the A380, while a similar gear track will allow operation from existing 45m runways and 23m taxiways, although a widening of the runway shoulders is needed.
Environmental advantages
Field performance of the A380 is also claimed by Airbus to be better than that of the 747-400, due to the generation of more lift from the longer wing. Figures quoted for the A380-800 are a take-off field length of 2,990m and a landing length of 2,103m, compared with 3,530m and 2,260m respectively for the 747. Everyone will benefit from a much smaller noise footprint, lower fuel consumption and emissions well below the future ICAO CAEP4 requirements, from the two new-technology engines being qualified on the A380, the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 and the Pratt & Whitney/General Electric Engine Alliance GP7200.
One area of unease has been the effect of the A380 on ramp operations and suitability of ground-support equipment. Airbus says the only equipment that needs some development work are tow tractors and the upper deck catering vehicle. For the A380-800F freighter, the only new requirement is an upper deck cargo loader.
Embarkation and disembarkation for passengers has also exercised the minds of airports and airlines. Airbus says that turnaround times, either through two-bridge main deck access or with a third bridge for direct upper deck entry, are similar to those of the 747. Over 60 airports will have to handle the A380 by 2010. Fifteen, mostly in the Far East, are ready today, says Airbus.
The A380, too, is almost ready. Three of the four flying development aircraft are nearing completion at the Jean-Luc LagardŠre final assembly building in Toulouse, with the first passenger aircraft to be introduced to the public in mid-January. This will be followed by the maiden flight, probably in February or March. The A380-800 passenger aircraft will enter service with Singapore Airlines in spring 2006. The A380-800F freighter is due to fly in mid-2007, with service entry with Emirates in mid-2008. A new era is about to begin.
| Airbus A380 orderbook | ||||||
| Customer | Model | Engine | Firm | Options | Order date | Delivery |
| Emirates | A380-800 A380-800F | GP7200 GP7200 | 41 | 10 2 | 23 June 2000/ 4 Nov 2001/ 16 June 2003 23 June 2000 | 2006 2008 |
| Quantas Airways | A380-800 | Trent 900 | 12 | 12 | 29 Nov 2000 | 2006-11 |
| Quatar Airways | A380-800 |
| 2* | 2 | 27 Feb 2001 | 2009 |
| Virgin Atlantic | A380-800 | Trent 900 | 6 | 6 | 26 April 2001 | 2007-9 |
| Air France | A380-800 | GP7200 | 10 | 4 | 18 June 2001 | 2007-9 |
| ILFC | A380-800 | GP7200 | 5 |
| 19 June 2001 | 2007-12 |
|
| A380-800F | GP7200 | 5 |
| 19 June 2001 | 2007-12 |
| Singapore Airlines | A380-800 | Trent 900 | 10 | 15 | 16 July 2001 | 2006-7 |
| Lufthansa | A380-800 | Trent 900 | 15 |
| 20 Dec 2001 | 2007-15 |
| FedEx | A380-800F | GP7200 | 10 | 10 | 16 July 2002 | 2008-11 |
| Malaysia Airlines | A380-800 |
| 6 |
| Dec 2003 | 2007-8 |
| Korean Air | A380-800 |
| 5 | 3 | Oct 2003 | 2007-9 |
| Etihad Airways | A380-800 |
| 4* |
| 19 June 2004* | 2007-8 |
| Thai Airways | A380-800 |
| 6* |
| Aug 2004* | 2008-9 |
| Total |
|
| 139 | 62 |
|
|
Note: Orderbook as at start of December 2004. *Commitments announced, firm contracts not yet signed
Report by Gunter Endres in Toulouse
Source: Airline Business
