STEWART PENNEY / LONDON
The outlook for the Dubai Air Show remains upbeat despite regional tensions. But will visitor levels match organiser's expectations?
Dubai has established itself, alongside Farnborough, Paris and Singapore, as one of the world's major air shows. But the events of 11 September and military strikes against Afghanistan have cast a shadow over this year's event, which is being held at the purpose-built site close to Dubai international airport between 4 and 8 November. In fact, while some exhibitors are vastly reducing their presence, others are pulling out altogether.
Concern has been expressed by industry sources that attendance from military delegations representing countries in the Middle East will be low as "the region's defence ministries are all on high alert".
The show organisers have insisted that the number of delegates is at least as high as two years ago, but there are fears that most, if not all, are from commercial organisations, rather than the military. An attraction of Dubai has traditionally been the lucrative Gulf defence market.
Key areas of interest include military training and upgrades. BAE Systems is displaying its Hawk advanced trainer, while AeroVodochody's L-159 is making its Middle East debut. The potential training market in the Gulf is huge, with several nations having long-standing trainers requirements. Potential customers include Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The former signed a wide-ranging defence deal with BAE in July last year, and it is understood that part of the arrangement is to create a training academy based around the Hawk.
The UAE's position is complex. Although it is a major Hawk user and requires more trainers, a follow-on order for BAE is not a foregone conclusion.
Two years ago the UAE was close to a deal for ex-German air force Dassault/Dornier Alpha Jets which has never been signed, and the country's air force is partnering EADS in development of the Mako advanced trainer/light strike aircraft.
Revised MAKO
EADS and the UAE air force are partners for the on-going definition phase, and the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) covering full development has long been scheduled for this year's show.
EADS will display a revised Makomock-up at Dubai with a sliding, instead of hinged, canopy, a mission computer with automated displays, and the external stores options, using weapons from MBDA, in which EADS is a shareholder. The cockpit simulator first displayed at Paris in June.
The upgrade of existing military hardware will also be a talking point. Bahrain and Jordan want to improve their BellAH-1 Cobra fleets, while the UAE is in the process of bringing its Boeing AH-64A Apaches up to AH-64D standard, with perhaps a separate order for new D machines to increase the number of helicopters allocated to the operational squadrons.
Large numbers of Lockheed MartinC-130Hercules are also operated in the Gulf, and many require avionics modifications for compatibility with future air traffic control systems.
A number of air forces in the region are also looking for tankers and surveillance aircraft, including airborne early warning and air-to-ground surveillance.
As usual at Dubai, business aircraft will be an important part of the show. Although Cessna and Gulfstream have withdrawn, the former will be represented by its local distributor, and other business jet manufacturers will display their wares. Business jets are popular with individuals as well as corporations in the Middle East, and fractional ownership schemes have started to make major inroads in the region.
Jeddah, SaudiArabia-based NetJets Middle East started in July 1999. Boeing continues to offer its BBJ737-based corporate aircraft in the Middle East.
Larger versus faster
Airbus and Boeing's larger-versus-faster battle looks set to continue. The US manufacturer says the Dubai show is the first opportunity to present its sonic cruiser high-speed airliner proposal to a wider Gulf-based audience. Boeing has briefed Emirates on the sonic cruiser, and suggests the aircraft would cut the flight time from Dubai to New York by 25%.
Airbus already has commitments for the A380 from Emirates - which has ordered five passenger aircraft and two freighters - and Qatar Airways, which has ordered two and taken three options for General Electric CF6-powered aircraft.
Boeing is taking its 777 to the show as it sees aircraft in that category taking more than 40% of the market over the next 20 years, which it believes will be 651 aircraft worth $63 billion. Half that market will be single aisle and only 7% will be 747-sized or larger, it believes.
Source: Flight International
