Honeywell and Rolls-Royce predict fastest growth will be in intermediate twin market
Honeywell and Rolls-Royce are projecting a modestly positive outlook for the civil helicopter market in forecasts released at Heli-Expo 2004. Intermediate twin-turbine helicopters like the Bell/Agusta AB139 and Sikorsky S-76 are expected to be the fastest-growing segment.
After flat sales of turbine-powered civil helicopters last year, Honeywell is projecting an 8% growth this year and sales of 2,350 aircraft from 2004 to 2008, up almost 7% from the five-year period 1999-2003. R-R projects 5,165 civil deliveries from 2004 to 2013, with annual shipments expected to grow from a low of 480 this year to around 530 in 2013.
R-R's forecast of world turbine helicopter demand, produced jointly with analysts Teal Group, also projects a further 5,560 military deliveries over the 10-year period 2004-13. Forecast deliveries are valued at $81.7 billion for military helicopters compared with $13.9 billion for civil.
Honeywell says North America will account for almost 46% of 2004-8 civil turbine helicopter deliveries, with light singles making up just over 60% of sales. Europe will account for almost 23% of deliveries, with light twins making up 25% of sales. Asia, Oceania, Africa and the Middle East will account for 22.5% of deliveries, with intermediate twins making up more than 40% of sales.
Whereas Honeywell says 50% of 2004-2008 sales will be light singles, 13% light twins and 29% intermediate twins, R-R projects turbine singles will account for 57% of 2004-2013 sales, light twins 22% and intermediate twins 17%. Both agree there is renewed demand for intermediate helicopters as corporate and offshore operators re-equip, and that the civil market for large helicopters remains limited.
Honeywell says the corporate market will account for 29% of 2004-2008 deliveries, emergency medical service (EMS) 19%, law enforcement 16%, utility 14% and offshore 11%. R-R says the offshore market remains stable, with a positive outlook for oil and gas exploration. The corporate sector remains firm, the company says, while the EMS sector is re-equipping and expanding services. But the law-enforcement sector has yet to see a significant increase in procurement funding, both companies say.
Lycoming expects piston-powered helicopter deliveries to grow by at least 20% this year, boosted by the weak US dollar. R-R believes the resurgence in piston-single deliveries will in turn lead to increased sales of low-cost "transition turbines".Source: Flight International
