The world airline industry could lose $4.9 billion in 2003, but may return to profitability next year, predicts the International Air Transport Association. The association has also revised its 2003 international passenger forecast from 7% growth to a 1% drop, a sharp change since the start of the year (Flight International, 14-20 January), writes Ian Goold.
From a $3.8 billion net loss in 2002, chief economist Peter Morris projects a $4.9 billion deficit this year and a net result of between a $1.9 billion loss and $5.4 billion profit for 2004, depending on the extent of cost-cuts and traffic recovery.
IATA predicts an average of 4.7% annual international scheduled passenger number growth during 2003-7, falling from 7% in 2004-5 to 5% in 2006-7. But Morris suspects that predictions are still too optimistic, with forecast growth trends continually postponed: "I've never seen any forecast that showed next year worse than this year," he says.
Source: Flight International
