Fear of year 2000 (Y2K) "bugs" in air traffic services (ATS) computers is almost certain to cause flight delays and cancellations to varying degrees, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has calculated.
Plans revealed for Asia-Pacific assume the need to reduce the capacity of North Pacific airspace by two thirds for several hours while systems are checked out over the 31December - 1 January transition period. A Y2K "worst case scenario" for every organisation reviewed has been calculated, says IATA, so that airlines can prepare.
Even ATS providers which have completed a Y2K compliance programme must have a fall-back plan, IATA says. International services by airlines based in a state which is Y2K compliant depend on other national ATS providers along their routes, so could suffer delays if any are not Y2K compliant or enforce a precautionary traffic reduction.
According to David Behrens, IATA assistant director for Asia-Pacific infrastructure, reducing airspace capacity for several hours either side of midnight will ensure that air traffic in the region can rely safely on autonomous systems such as inertial navigation, without any communication with the ground, in the event of an ATS computer failure.
The Y2K plan was endorsed at IATA's Stage Four Forum, held in Tokyo in late February with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and national governments.
Measures considered include the introduction of one-way traffic flows, the increase of aircraft separation times from 10 to 15min, and altitude separation of 4,000ft (1,200m) instead of 2,000ft.
"Our aim is to minimise disruption, but to keep the period long enough to ensure the robustness of the system," says IATA Asia-Pacific infrastructure director Anthony Laven. States involved have not yet agreed how long the period will last, he says, with some considering introducing the safety measures up to 4h before midnight.
Similar plans are being prepared for other regions. "By July, states are supposed to have their plans in place, and if there are any states which are behind, then we will be looking at ways and means to help them," says Behrens. Concern has arisen because some communications systems claimed by vendors to be Y2K compliant failed tests, but nearly all aircraft systems have passed the tests, he says.
Source: Flight International
