The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) expects zero growth in air travel this year, but says that a recovering world economy should end the two-year slump in passenger numbers and trigger strong growth in 2003 and 2004.
ICAOlast week revised its estimates of passenger numbers downwards for 2001 and 2002. Overall, the agency expects to see a 2.9% drop in passenger traffic last year, and no growth this year. In its last set of forecasts, made in 2000, it predicted 5.5% and 5.3% growth respectively. Air traffic normally rises at around double the rate of world gross domestic product growth. Last year was not the first time it has fallen, as fear of an Iraqi terrorist attack in 1991 caused traffic to fall slightly, but 2001-02 will be the longest period without net growth in traffic since the Second World War.
"Assuming continuation of restored consumer confidence," the agency says, traffic should return to 5% global annual growth to 2010.
Growth will be fastest in the Asia-Pacific region, maintained at around 7%. Slowest growth will be in North America, but the area will still account for roughly a third of world air travel by 2010.
Source: Flight International
