Sir - Andrew Chuter is right to warn the airlines of the impact of high-speed rail services (Flight International, 7-13 June, P94).
The real danger threatening domestic and short-haul European services, does not come from the TGV high speed train, however, but from the willingness of governments to sink billions of Ecus, into the building of a prestigious new high speed railway network, regardless of the economics, while the European Commission (EC) insists, that they refrain from helping their national airlines.
The Belgian Government is willing to pay BFr170 billion ($5.9 billion) - up from the original estimate of BFr50 billion - for a TGV link between Brussels and Paris. This proposal will put Sabena out of business on the route, even as Parliament complains that Sabena is not making money. The Sabena loss of BFr1.4 billion over the whole of 1994 is peanuts in comparison to the BFr1.2 billion which the SNCB railroad company is losing every week.
No politician seems to mind that the money is being spent on a single TGV route. It has been suggested that Sabena could fly passengers free for ten years between Brussels and Paris if given that amount of money.
No-one blinked when the cost of the Paris high-speed rail link rocketed to the BFr170 billion which will now be financed by the Government and subsidised by the EC.
What about the level playing field? Who said something about fair competition?
Name withheld by request
Merchtem, Belgium
...In Europe, loss of air traffic to high-speed trains is very real. Daimler-Benz Aerospace (DASA) Airbus has conducted a study based on the Community of European Railways' three-phase development plan, which outlines a conventionally tracked high-speed-train programme for all of Europe. The 1990 study (still valid today) predicts that air traffic will shift to the rails on the heavily travelled routes between certain city pairs.
Most heavily affected will be point-to-point traffic; the air-to-rail shift will be a function of distance between city pairs. International high-speed city-centre-to-city-centre rail travel will offer a time advantage mainly at distances of under 500km (310 miles). After the completion of this programme, air-to-rail losses of about 40% are still expected at that distance, dropping to only 10% at 750km.
Total losses to European airlines to the year 2010 are predicted at 7% of volume. This translates into 220 fewer aircraft (single and twin-aisle types with 100-plus seats).
Although the Eurostar service was included in the study, DASA Airbus recently re-evaluated its effect on air traffic. For major city pairs such as London-Paris or Brussels, a 40% diversion is forecast by 2005.
HALUK TAYSI
Daimler-Benz Aerospace
Airbus
Bremen, Germany
Source: Flight International
