China and South Korea must overcome major stumbling blocks if they are to realise their ambition of building a 100-seat aircraft.
Paul Lewis/BEIJING
TIME IS RUNNING out for two of Asia's aspiring aviation nations. One year after announcing ambitious plans to share the building of a new 100-seat aircraft by the end of the decade, China and South Korea have still to clear their first major obstacle. The selection of a supporting Western partner will prove to be a critical test of Asia's ability and resolve to lead an international aerospace programme.
Teams of negotiators from seven US and European airframe manufacturers, have been shuttling to and from Beijing and Seoul since August, to court Aviation Industries of China (AVIC) and the Korean Commercial-Aircraft Development Consortium (KCDC). A decision was due by the end of September, but has been delayed until the end of the year (Flight International, 18-24 October).
Key members of the South Korean consortium, in the meantime, are growing impatient with China's snail-like and heavily politicised decision-making process. South Korean private industry, which is underwriting half of the country's 35% stake in the $1.5 billion project, is pressing for speedier progress. "We're spending money by the day, and want a decision soon," says a South Korean source.
The 100-seat programme, tentatively designated the Airexpress AE100 by AVIC, is not expected to enter service until at least 2002-3. Both Boeing and Fokker are projecting a requirement for around 3,000 regional aircraft over the next 20 years. The bulk of those aircraft are replacements for aging McDonnell Douglas (MDC) DC-9s and Boeing 737-200s, leaving room for two or three competing aircraft types.
With MDC working hard to launch its 105-seat MD-95, and Indonesia's IPTN having already announced plans to go ahead with its similar-sized N-2130, any further delay to the Airexpress project could prove fatal. "If there is not a decision by the end of the year, we risk missing our chance," confirms a KCDC member.
Other, more fundamental, differences between China and South Korea are beginning to show. Despite AVIC president Zhu Yuli's assertion that the selection criteria of a Western partner will be on the basis of technology transfer, South Korean officials are privately voicing concern that China's wider political agenda is increasingly becoming a factor.
Boeing has sold $7 billion-worth of aircraft to Chinese carriers over the past four years, accounting for some 15% of its total production, and is mounting a determined campaign to keep European industry out of China. Beijing, in turn, has taken full advantage of its importance to US aerospace manufacturers to lever political concessions out of Washington.
Competition between European and US manufacturers has intensified over the past two months, partially contributing to AVIC and KCDC's delay in choosing a partner. Moves in July by Aerospatiale, Alenia, British Aerospace, Daimler-Benz and Fokker to form one competing European consortium spurred Boeing into action (Flight International, 6-12 September).
ÊA common European approach proved too difficult to cement, and by late September, AVIC and KCDC were in receipt of four separate proposals from Aero International (Aerospatiale, Alenia and BAe), Boeing, Daimler-Benz (with subsidiary Fokker) and MDC. Not one appears to comply fully with the Chinese and South Korean need for a 20% risk-sharing partner.
"What does 20% mean, when the size and shape of the aircraft is still being determined?" asks one competing manufacturer.
The variation in proposals reflects the state of flux of the Airexpress programme. AVIC is pressing for a 115-seat baseline configuration, while KCDC places the emphasis on 100 seats.
As alternatives to 20% risk-sharing, Aero International is instead pushing to be put on a more equal footing with AVIC and KCDC, in return for access to key European technology, including fly-by-wire systems. "We're talking about the most modern technology, and training people to use the technology," says Aerospatiale senior executive vice-president for the New Small Airplane team Yves Michot.
Boeing is similarly emphasising the technological benefits of a tie-up, along with marketing and after-sales support. Boeing has ruled out any direct infusion of funds into the programme, but is asking for cash payments and a share of profits in return for its engineering and management input.
Daimler-Benz and Fokker have also offered to share technology with China and South Korea, but as part of a proposed "twin programme/single-source supply" concept, supporting production lines in Asia and Europe. The proposal, based on the FA-X 120, includes common definition, development and certification.
MDC made a late entry into the Airexpress competition, hoping to capitalise on its MD-90 TrunkLiner co-production programme with China. Its offer of technology would be funded by compensation to cover its costs, combined with royalty payments on aircraft produced. To avoid competing with the MD-95s, markets would be divided.
For AVIC and KCDC, there is now the difficult job of evaluating the four proposals, reaching a consensus on a winner and hammering out a collaborative agreement with the new partner.
Says a South Korean official: "We must maintain a momentum and avoid this project being talked to death."
Source: Flight International
