Kevin O'Toole/TOKYO
BATTLE LINES are being drawn up in Japan and the USA as pressure mounts on both sides of the Pacific for a renegotiation of the controversial passenger bilateral between the two countries.
Although talks are now under way over a revised cargo agreement, the US Government has not yet agreed to passenger negotiations, but there is growing confidence among the Japanese aviation community that its own Government will force the issue by canceling the existing bilateral if delays continue.
The negotiations are shaping up to be a head-on confrontation between US demands for "open skies" and Japanese determination, backed by Japan Airlines (JAL), to use the talks to iron out perceived inequalities in the 1952 passenger bilateral.
Such conflicts have already surfaced in the cargo talks, which are due to be completed in March, but have so far progressed little further than a debate over the basis for the negotiations.
JAL is determined that a new passenger agreement should give it greater access to US destinations and end what it sees as "gross inequalities" over beyond-rights.
The Japanese flag carrier says that it only has a limited right from the USA to Brazil, and this amounts to fewer than 4,000 passengers a year. In contrast, the two incumbent US carriers Northwest Airlines and United Airlines transport around 1.8 million passengers to destinations beyond Japan. Some of the US flights are almost, entirely filled with traffic, originating from Japan, claims JAL.
"Open skies with the USA is simply unacceptable given the gross inequality of the existing treaty. We're in favour of liberalisation, but equal opportunities would have to be put in place first," says Chikara Sugimoto, JAL's assistant vice-president for international affairs.
In the USA, however, the non-incumbent US carriers American, Delta and Continental Airlines, are stepping up calls for greater market access. American has renewed petitions for new services to Osaka and Tokyo and is leading a coalition of airlines, business interests and others under the name "Access US-Japan". The aim of the group is to put pressure on the White House for a liberalised aviation agreement.
The coalition has called for President Clinton to start negotiations on a new passenger agreement when he visits Japan in April.
The group appears to have gained broad support from All Nippon Airways (ANA), which, like the US airlines, is not an incumbent under the 1952 treaty and therefore suffers from capacity constraints as well.
ANA President, Seiji Fukatsu says, that the two sides should "avoid the outdated rhetoric of protectionism" and move towards " greatly expanding competition and opportunities".
The need for a new passenger agreement is gaining an added urgency with the prospect of a new runway being added at Narita Airport, Tokyo's heavily congested international gateway.
The new runway would add around another 100,000 slots a year to the airport. JAL is determined to make use of this rare opportunity to increase its presence at what should be its dominant international hub. The carrier complains that US airlines now hold nearly one-third of existing slots, while it has only 27% and ANA 8%.
In order to maintain its share, JAL is pressing for half the new slots, says Sugimoto. He believes that ANA and other Asian or European carriers seeking to expand or enter the airport should be given priority over US carriers.
The runway's completion is still, being blocked by local protesters, but a solution could be nearing, with closed-door talks now taking place between the Japanese authorities and the airport protesters. No time-scale has yet been set, but consensus within Japan is that the capacity will have been added by around 2000.
Source: Flight International
