The current bilateral calls for the two countries to resume talks before January with the objective of "fully liberalising" aviation. Barring agreement on that, automatic provisions kick in by the beginning of 2002. A key issue will be whether each side can improve its position over what it would gain under these automatic changes. Generally they favour All Nippon Airways, American, and Delta, which were not included in the original Japan-USA accord. "Incumbent carriers" - Japan Airlines, United, and Northwest - have broader rights, mostly in terms of fifth freedoms.
US negotiators are expected to renew calls for open skies with Japan. There seems little likelihood, however, that Japan will entertain such a proposal for very long. With capacity restrictions at all its gateways and conflicting demands for slots, Japan is unlikely to agree to anything that would single out US carriers for unlimited third, fourth, and fifth freedoms.
Two airport factors will influence negotiations. Seoul is opening a new airport next spring at Inchon. It could be especially attractive to American and Delta, who lack fifth freedoms beyond Japan, but could have them beyond Seoul. Yet Tokyo is one of Asia's most coveted destinations, and Narita airport plans to open a second runway in 2002.
Initial sparring may be over open skies, but the talks ultimately are likely to focus on how many slots the US can gain at Narita by tweaking the curfew or hourly movements cap, or from the opening of the second runway.
The new runway is only a stopgap. Officials shelved plans for a longer runway because of fierce local opposition. The new runway will allow another 175 or so movements per day or 65,000 annually, but it will be 2,180m (7,150ft) long - only big enough for aircraft up to the Boeing 767 in size.
Forty one airlines from 30 countries have requests pending with Tokyo for more access, and the Japanese carriers complain that foreigners already have a greater share of Narita's slots than at any other gateway in the world.
The timetable in the Japan-US accord assumed Narita would have a new full-length runway by 2002. With that out of the question, the key now is how much less each side can accept.
Source: Airline Business
