If some manufacturers are correct, there is a market for 2,500 new advanced trainers and light attack aircraft over the next 20 years
Andrew Doyle/MUNICH Andrzej Jeziorski/SINGAPORE Paul Lewis/WASHINGTON DC Stewart Penney/LONDON
Advanced jet trainers and light attack aircraft may not be as glamorous as frontline air defence or strike fighters, but they are just as vital.
The purpose of advanced training is to hone students' flying skills to the level that manoeuvring an aircraft becomes second nature, while also introducing the operation of mission systems, weapons use and the tactical flying of aircraft - be it low level operations or air combat manoeuvring. Because advanced trainers need to be representative of frontline aircraft they have the performance and systems to suit them for some combat duties. Most advanced jet trainers have thus secured sales in the light attack role, while the Aero Vodochody L-159 and BAE Systems Hawk are available as single-seat aircraft dedicated to light attack and limited air defence roles.
As the complexity of frontline aircraft increases, advanced trainers must provide a representative training environment, with a glass cockpit, head-up display (HUD) and hands-on-throttle-and-stick controls. Performance should allow reasonably high-g manoeuvring and speeds representative of the frontline.
Within NATO, the focus in recent years has been on boosting frontline capabilities. The introduction of new combat types has imposed increasing strain on training systems as the number of instructional aircraft shrinks and those that are available become less representative of the front line. In Eastern Europe, countries emerging from the Warsaw Pact are struggling with economic issues and are concentrating on developing their fighter fleets. Tight budgets have forced countries in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific to delay many defence programmes.
The Hawk and L-159 do not have the market to themselves. Last year Italian company Aermacchi secured its first order in years for its MB339 when Venezuela signed for eight aircraft. The South American country also became the first to order the Alenia/Embraer AMX-T/ATA (Advanced Trainer Attack), a development of the AMX light attack aircraft as a lead-in fighter (LIF)/advanced trainer. Aermacchi continues to develop the M346, formerly the Yakovlev/Aermacchi Yak-130, while the Russian company develops its own version.
Russian competition
Also in Russia, RSK is working on its MiG-AT as a competitor to the Yak-130 for a Russian air force order that has been talked about for the past 10 years or so. There is also a Westernised version of the MiG-AT with Sextant (now Thales Avionics) cockpit systems and Snecma Larzac engines, which are used on the two prototypes but will be replaced by the Soyuz RD-1700 in the Russian specification aircraft. Elsewhere, EADS Germany is designing the Mako, while Lockheed Martin is working alongside Korean Aerospace Industries (KAI) on the T-50 supersonic advanced trainer and its light attack development the A-50. EADS and KAI/Lockheed Martin have an eye on the Northrop T-38 Talon replacement market, but they are likely to be frustrated by upgrade programmes intended to keep the supersonic trainer in US Air Force service until around 2040.
As many of today's trainers and those in development could replace a range of aircraft from simple jet-powered advanced trainers to older second- and third- generation frontline fighters such as the Northrop F-5 or Mikoyan MiG-19 and MiG-21, the market shows plenty of potential, but not every manufacturer is convinced.
EADS believes it could sell around 2,500 Makos over the next 25 years. The company divides this into 1,500 light combat aircraft and 1,000 trainers. By region, EADS estimates a demand in Europe for 600 aircraft; the same number in North and South America; 550 aircraft in Africa and the Middle East and 750 aircraft in Asia Pacific. Aermacchi says its 1999 analysis of the worldwide fleet indicated a total of about 3,600 aircraft, of which around two thirds are over 25 years old. As a result, the company predicts that 2,100 new aircraft will be delivered over the next 30 years. "The market size has been estimated taking into account, where appropriate, the downsizing effect due to the outsourcing of pilot training," says Aermacchi M346 marketing manager Paolo Mezzanotte. Like EADS, he believes the market will be split "almost equally" between Europe, Africa, the Middle East, North and South America and Asia. Mezzanotte adds: "We do not see any need for single-seaters or for supersonic capabilities."
Forecast divide
Czech manufacturer Aero sees a potential market over the next eight to 10 years for just over 1,000 examples of its primary export offering, the L-159. The aircraft will be required by customers "just about all over the world," the company believes, but it says it is difficult to forecast how demand will be divided between trainer and combat versions. "The market needs both and many customers will ask for both, or a multi-role aircraft," says Aero business development manager George Zabokrtsky. "Every customer is unique and many don't know what their precise requirements are," he adds. "The big change we have seen over the last year is that the market is not evolving as rapidly as everyone would like it to," says Zabokrtsky, noting that some recent campaigns have been subject to protracted delays.
BAE made similar comments when issuing a profits warning last month. It believes the total accessible market is likely to be 300-400 aircraft over the next 10 years. The company believes demand will stem from Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia.
KAI expects to export 800 T-50s over the next 20 years, based on a requirement to replace 3,200 advanced trainers worldwide, and an assumption that the supersonic T-50 will win a 25% market share. "The numbers will increase substantially" with future developments of the aircraft, such as the A-50, which could replace types such as the F-5, says KAI.
Some industry officials express doubts about the project, however, saying that it could come under renewed scrutiny as the South Korean Government seeks defence cuts connected with attempts at reconciliation with North Korea. "They [the South Korean air force] now have numbers of fast jet trainers and they would seriously need to consider the need for a new, indigenously developed trainer when there are other options available at a fraction of the budget," says one source.
Boeing is taking a less aggressive approach to exporting its T-38 Avionics Upgrade Program (AUP). "There is a market, but it's fairly limited," says Keith Hertzenberg, Boeing vice-president for modernisation and upgrade programmes. Most upgrades have been directed at the related F-5 as a fighter/light attack aircraft and not trainers. Boeing has worked with Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) as a subcontractor, including in Spain, where IAI is to upgrade four two-seat F-5Bs as a proof of concept: Spain has 25 F-5Bs to modernise. "IAI has asked us to participate and we see the potential for certain pieces of T-38C kit crossing over to the F-5B," says Hertzenberg.
T-38 opportunities
"There are still some opportunities in the Pacific Rim, but we don't see any near-term activity. I think the international market is at most between 100 and 150 aircraft for both training and light attack. Turkey has about 70 T-38s which they may be interested in upgrading in the future, and there are another 70 to 80 jets worldwide that might be candidates," says Jeff Deckelbaum, Boeing T-38 AUP programme manager.
As defence budgets have shrunk, air forces have sought ways of reducing cost. Privatised training has proved to be one way of doing this. One such scheme, NATO Flying Training in Canada (NFTC) has started to train pilots and the UK is considering following a similar route. The proposed UK Military Flying Training Scheme (MFTS) would see a company or consortia provide training for pilots, navigators/weapon system operators, air electronics engineers and air loadmasters from post ab initio training to pre-operational conversion for the British Army, Royal Air Force and Royal Navy. Also included will be the management of five airbases and nine other airfields.
The UK Ministry of Defence says a contract could be worth £5 billion ($7.3 billion), although industry has speculated that a 25-year contract with a five-year option could be worth three times that if all the trainer fleets are replaced. BAE's MFTS project director has said that the company would have around £1 billion of assets tied up in the programme if it was selected. Other companies known to have been briefed on MFTS include Boeing, Bombardier, Cobham's subsidiary FRAviation, Hunting, Lockheed Martin, Pilatus, Raytheon, Rolls-Royce and Serco. A contract would begin in 2007, but the winner could start to perform some duties from 2004 to ease the complex transition procedures.
Programmes such as MFTS and NFTC do not kill the market for trainers, but they do shrink it. Private companies will tend to achieve higher aircraft utilisation rates. Reducing the number of aircraft required and sharing assets in a single scheme reduces the number of trainers needed to meet the training commitment of many nations.
EADS says it is "working on" contractorised training schools, adding that it believes the Mako will be "an integral part of the future European training centre". Such a proposal has been put forward under the Eurotraining banner by the European Air Chiefs (EURAC). It would create a new European pilot training scheme from 2010 based around a new "Eurotrainer". EURAC includes Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finand, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and the UK. Aircraft manufacturers are also involved, although industry sources suggest that some friction is being created because, despite guidance to the contrary, there has been overt marketing of competing products.
Power by the hour
Aermacchi's Mezzanotte says the company will provide "full support" to the Italian air force's training centre in Lecce under a turnkey contract. This centre is also expected to train increasing numbers of foreign pilots.
Aero says it "is capable of providing a contractorised training service on a power-by-the-hour basis". Whether the company sets up a dedicated training school would "depend on the business case", says Zabokrtsky.
Established aircraft, such as the MB339 and Hawk, continue to receive modest upgrades. Aermacchi's Mezzanotte says that the next batch of MB339CDs will have "the most advanced systems in service for training purposes". The AMX-T/ATA is, meanwhile, expected to benefit from the operational-capability upgrades planned by the Brazilian and Italian air forces for their AMX strike aircraft.
The Hawk has already received wing, fuselage and engine improvements as well as cockpit changes. The Hawk 127 delivered to the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) last year, for instance, has cockpit switching and avionics moding that replicates that of the RAAF's principal fighters, the Boeing F/A-18 Hornet.
Another change being considered, and driven by India's needs, is a switch to a Smiths Aerospace mission system that could serve as the basis for introducing an open architecture avionics system for the trainer that would enable speedier and cheaper changes to the avionics package.
While deliveries of 72 single-seat Aero L-159s to the Czech air force are under way, the manufacturer is developing a two-seat production version for the training market. "This is an aircraft that is probably the most modern in its category because it is right at the beginning of its production run," says Zabokrtsky. "We believe we can deliver it at an extremely attractive price."
KAI has started final assembly of the prototype T-50 three months ahead of schedule. The mating of the prototype's forward, centre and aft fuselage sections with the tail surfaces was performed on 15 January. Development will cost about $2 billion for four flying prototypes and two ground test aircraft. Negotiations on a production contract are due to start this year, with a final signature expected in early 2003. "Our plan is to deliver the first production aircraft in the fourth quarter of 2004," says KAI. It says the contract will cover 100 airframes, which will be a roughly 50:50 mix of T-50A trainers and T-50B lead-in fighter trainers. KAI says it cannot reveal exact air force requirements.
Development needed
Aermacchi's M346 is "conceived to fully meet the requirements for the coming decades" and no upgrades are foreseen "apart from updates resulting from technology evolution, particularly in mission avionics," says Mezzanotte.
The aircraft does need significant development to take it from the Yak-130 prototype to the fully Westernised M346, to be built in Italy. It will have a pair of Honeywell F124 engines in place of Slovak-built Povaske Strojarne DV-2Ss. The US company will also supply its 36-150 auxiliary power unit. Other team members include Teleavio and Marconi Italiana in collaboration with BAE Systems Avionics to develop the digital flight control system. The avionics are the responsibility of Alenia DSAE. The first M346 is to fly in the middle of next year followed by a second aircraft in 2003.
Boeing and Northrop Grumman have a series of contracts to improve the T-38 and keep it in service for the foreseeable future. Boeing is responsible for the AUP while Northrop Grumman is improving the airframe.
Within AUP, IAI is supplying display processor and HUD; L-3 is supplying multifunction displays and electronic engine displays; Honeywell is providing an embedded inertial/GPS-satellite navigation system, radar altimeter and a stand-alone air data computer. Boeing has integration responsibility. Non-USAF options could include radar, as it is possible to incorporate a Fiar Grifo L as used on the L-159. "We've looked at several pieces of equipment that could simulate a radar on a test range," says Hertzenberg. Weapons could also be integrated.
Northrop Grumman's separate structural work includes a contract to manufacture 55 improved Dash 29-standard replacement wings as an interim measure to solve fatigue issues. First deliveries start in October. Under another contract, Northrop Grumman is developing the new Dash 33 wing with double the fatigue life (8,600h) of the present wing to extend the aircraft's operational life to 2040.
The exterior lines remain identical, but the new wing will use stronger materials and redesigned access hatches as many of the Dash 29 wings have fallen short of the 4,300h design life as a result of the USAF Air Education Training Command moving towards more demanding LIF training. The new wing is due to enter production in 2006 and will be retrofitted to the entire fleet.
A third upgrade area is the T-38's twin General Electric J85-5 turbojets, which will receive upgraded compressors and new ejector nozzles. The USAF also wants to redesign the aircraft's intake and fuselage bulkheads. "If a given requirement required a life extension as well as AUP we could obviously package that together, but again we've not seen that requirement," says Hertzenberg.
Source: Flight International
