Guy Norris/LOS ANGELES
McDONNELL DOUGLAS (MDC) forecasts that the market for the next generation of high-capacity airliners will stand at only 546 deliveries up to 2014.
The forecast, contained in MDC's latest outlook for the world's commercial jet-airliner fleet through to 2014, adds to the spat between Boeing and Airbus over the likely scale of the market for their pending 747-600X and A3XX offerings.
The argument came to a head at the Farnborough air show in September, when Boeing revealed that its forecast for the segment above 500 seats was for only 470 units, ridiculing Airbus optimism that the market could come close to 1,400 units over the next 20 years.
MDC, which has no plans to compete in the segment, says that the next two decades will bring sales of 343 long-range aircraft in the 600-seat class, with another 203 for medium-range operations.
Despite the relatively modest delivery figures, MDC acknowledges that the value of the market will come in at around $113 billion, with the long-range versions accounting for around two-thirds of the value. That would mean a price tag in the region of $200 million per aircraft at current values, in line with the figures unveiled by Airbus and Boeing.
MDC follows Boeing in predicting that the most lucrative market will be in the long-range 400-seat segment, in which it plans to compete with the MD-XX. It forecasts more than 1,200 deliveries, worth around $200 billion.
The prediction ties in fairly closely with Boeing's latest 20-year forecast, which suggests that the 400-seat market would account for around 1,100 deliveries.
Airbus figures are more heavily weighted to the 500- to 600-seat range, where it expects around 900 deliveries to be made over the next two decades. The figures are inflated by a more-speculative prediction for 500 deliveries in a yet-to-emerge 800- to 1,000-seat class. Boeing argues that such forecasts stem from wishful thinking, saying that Airbus partners have made more conservative estimates.
Elsewhere within its forecast, MDC is upbeat about the prospects for the 100-seat class, including its own MD-95. It suggests 2,471 deliveries worth $87 billion. That would put the price tag in current dollars at around $35 million, a substantial increase on recent deals in the $20 million range.
Source: Flight International
