STEWART PENNEY / LONDON
Flight International's 2003 Military Aircraft Census once again underlines the USA's airborne strength
Overall, the number of military aircraft worldwide (excluding historic and recreational types) is 89,129 - slightly down on 2002. The difference can be regarded as unimportant, but figures for the USA have grown significantly. Several factors have contributed to this change: the addition of the Boeing Sikorsky RAH-66 Comanche, after last year's decision to proceed to low-rate initial production; the 2002 restructuring of the Sikorsky MH-60R programme that saw abandonment of the plan to rebuild existing machines in favour of new build helicopters; and the long-expected deal for another 60 Boeing C-17 transports. Not included in the overall figure or the US total, however, are potential orders for the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. No production orders have yet been placed, but requirements are: 1,763 for the US Air Force and a reduced total of 680 for the US Navy and Marine Corps.
Regions seeing serious falls in the numbers of military aircraft include Central Asia - down 9.8% to 1,228; Latin America and the Caribbean, where the figure has declined 6.3% to 5,412; and non-NATO Europe, down 5.5% to 13,786. Much of this is as a result of the wholesale retirement of inefficient fleets. Within Central Asia, a large part of the fall is due to around 140 Aero Vodochody L-39s and Mil Mi-24s left in Kyrgyzstan when the Soviet Union broke up being removed from the republic's inventory. A similar fate has befallen some fleets in Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine plans to remove 600 aircraft - and 10 to 12 brigades - from the air force order of battle by 2005.
The Lockheed Martin F-16 remains the most popular combat aircraft (see table P50); it is still receiving orders, while most Russian-designed fighters in the top 10 are long out of production. The exceptions are the Sukhoi Su-27/30/33/35 family, which has received significant export orders in recent years; the RSK MiG-29 and the limited production of the Mikoyan MiG-21-based Chengdu JF-7, built in China.
This year's Flight International Military Aircraft Census focuses on tankers, transports and special missions aircraft. The likely go-ahead for the Airbus Military A400M programme, expected in the first half of this year, places the spotlight on the transport market. In terms of numbers, the Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules leads the pack by some distance, trailed by the Antonov An-2 Colt and its derivatives.
Airbus Military is trying to break into C-130 territory, intending to claim a large portion of the replacement market. Nearly 800 first-generation C-130s are in US services, and 519 C-130E/Hs in USAF service will be upgraded under the Boeing-led avionics modernisation programme (AMP), while 168 new C-130Js will also be acquired. Even with AMP accounting for over half the C-130 replacement market, the medium-lift sector could still provide reasonable prospects, particularly as some of the nearly 500 Ilyushin Il-76/78s and 250 Antonov An-12s could be replaced by Western-built aircraft.
Exports
Airbus Military has identified around 2,500 aircraft worldwide that could be replaced by an A400M-size platform. It believes it can secure 200 exports. This figure reflects the addressable market - Russia and the USA will continue to build military transports and are therefore unlikely to import such aircraft - and a belief that aircraft will be replaced on a one-for-two basis.
Although transports and tankers are less glamourous than their combat aircraft counterparts, they are an important part of the force structure. The lack of strategic airlift and in-flight refuelling in Europe has been identified as a shortfall during recent conflicts in the Balkans and Afghanistan.
As a result, at the NATO summit in November last year, the alliance agreed a proposal to create a 16-aircraft strategic transport pool. NATO also ordered Spain to develop a similar proposal for in-flight refuelling. This issue has been recognised for some time, yet little progress seems to have been made. Without these aircraft, many European NATO nations can play little part in international coalition operations.
Several NATO nations have reasonably sized transport fleets, but many of the aircraft have payloads of less than 10t - tactical aircraft used for moving equipment between bases. During the Cold War, most European air forces only had to move equipment from logistics centres, so the requirement was essentially to shift spares from stores to frontline bases - and a complete fighter engine was the largest item many of the aircraft were specified to carry. The shift to expeditionary warfare means larger aircraft with more range are required. It remains to be seen whether the financial decision-makers will allow the replacement of smaller transports with larger, and more expensive, aircraft.
There are more than 1,300 smaller transports in service round the world, including the Alenia G222; the Antonov An-24/26/32 family, and its Chinese derivatives; the BAe 748; the de Havilland DHC-4 Caribou and DHC-5 Buffalo; the EADS Casa/Indonesian Aerospace CN235M; and the Fokker F27. Many are elderly, suggesting there is a healthy replacement market. The past 12 months have also seen selections in Brazil (EADS Casa C295), Greece (Alenia/Lockheed Martin C-27J) and Poland (C295), suggesting that countries are committed to spending on this type of aircraft.
A major conflict in the Gulf will probably affect defence spending. But war tends to benefit missile and bomb manufacturers and often has a negative effect on aircraft acquisitions, as planners re-evaluate requirements and finance ministries strive to reclaim the costs of fighting a war. So while the transports market is reasonably buoyant, manufacturers predicting bonuses from likely forthcoming events or speculating on massive orders may be disappointed.
Source: Flight International
