Our annual census reveals a burgeoning demand for business aircraft – and the imminent arrival of very light jets is poised to boost fleet numbers even further
The world’s corporate turbine fleet has again grown over the past year as international markets continue to embrace business aviation. With backlogs high, manufacturers are introducing new products and upgrades to sustain and stimulate interest among a widening customer base.
Flight International’s corporate aircraft census, compiled from Flight’s Acas database, reflects the robust growth in the industry from 30 September 2005 to 31 August 2006. It reveals the world’s turbine business aircraft fleet has climbed by nearly 7% to 24,466 jets and turboprops, compared with 22,986 in last year’s census.
View and download the latest Business Aviation Census, sponsored by Bombardier.
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Turboprops continued their renaissance, with the fleet climbing over the past year by 3.7% from 9,732 to 10,091. But the biggest increase has been in the worldwide jet inventory, with the rate of growth doubling over the same period a year earlier. This year’s census reveals an 8.5% growth in the jet fleet, from 13,254 to 14,375 aircraft in 11 months.
Embraer recorded the largest percentage increase with a 37% rise in its jet fleet from 60 to 82 aircraft, as market acceptance of its Legacy business jet series accelerated, although the ERJ-145 corporate fleet is unchanged at seven aircraft. The Brazilian manufacturer’s drive to become a major player in business aviation is picking up pace as it pursues certification of its new range of aircraft – the Phenom 100 very light and Phenom 300 light jets as well as the large-cabin Lineage, based on the E-190 – which are set to enter service with substantial backlogs over the next three years.
Cessna continues to dominate deliveries and in-service jet fleet numbers. This year’s inventory grew by 334 Citations to 4,624, more than double the growth for the previous 12 months. Citations represent nearly 19% of the worldwide turbine inventory and 32% of the total jet fleet. These numbers are boosted by threefold increases in mid-size Sovereign and CJ3 light jet deliveries to 100 and 95 aircraft, respectively, and a twofold increase in superlight XLS fleet numbers from 69 to 139 aircraft. Deliveries of the new CJ1+ and CJ2+ light jets are also under way, with an in-service fleet of 20 and 21 aircraft, respectively. Cessna expects to deliver 295-300 Citations this year, including the first Mustang entry-level jet, for which it has a backlog of more than 250 orders.
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The imminent service entry of order-busting aircraft like the Mustang is likely to further boost the fleet |
Gulfstream’s in-service fleet has climbed by 8% from 1,347 aircraft to 1,450, including 100 G550s, more than triple last year’s tally, and 42 large-cabin G450s, a fourfold increase. The fleet includes 112 super mid-size G200s. Gulfstream is on track to deliver 111 aircraft this year and 127 in 2007, including the first mid-size G150, which replaces the G100.
Bombardier’s business jet inventory has climbed by more than 10% from 2,884 aircraft to 3,179 aircraft. The trend is set to continue as the Canadian airframer boosts business jet production to offset the fall in demand for its regional aircraft. The long-range Global Express XRS, large-cabin Challenger 850 and upgraded Learjet 60XR mid-size make their census debuts, while the super-large Global 5000, which entered service in April, has an in-service tally of 24. The super mid-size Challenger 300 fleet has rocketed by 67% to 100 aircraft.
Dassault, which specialises in the high-end business jet market with offerings in only four segments, has also seen its in-service Falcon fleet grow. In the census period the inventory has climbed from 1,474 jets to 1,585, and it will receive a boost from early next year with the introduction of the ultra-long-range Falcon 7X, for which it has nearly 120 orders, including 24 for the NetJets Europe fractional ownership and block charter programme.
Large-cabin growth
The inventories of business jets based on Airbus and Boeing airliners have also made strides as the growth in group transport pushes demand for their large-cabin aircraft. The Airbus Corporate Jetliner (ACJ) fleet has climbed by 23% from 52 aircraft to 64 in the past year. The arrival later this year of the A318 Elite, for which Airbus has around 15 orders, will further increase the manufacturer’s corporate inventory.
Boeing’s corporate fleet has begun to climb again after a slight dip last year as sales of its BBJ and BBJ 2 business jets pick up. The inventory has risen by nine aircraft, bringing the total to 246, including 65 BBJs and 13 BBJ 2s. The Boeing family of VIP aircraft is also set to expand with the introduction of new models, including the 737-900ER-based BBJ 3, 737-700C-based convertible BBJ C and widebody 787 VIP.
Raytheon Aircraft, which boasts one of the broadest product spans of any manufacturer, has seen its jet fleet grow steadily since the last census from 1,769 aircraft to 1,899. The census reveals the in-service fleet of Hawker 800s, including the latest 850XP version, has grown to 725 aircraft over the past year, confirming its position as the best-selling mid-size jet. Boosted by its popularity with fractional programmes, the Hawker 400XP light-jet fleet has doubled during the same period from 60 aircraft to 125, while the entry-level Beechcraft Premier I inventory has climbed by 32 to 154 aircraft. The introduction over the next 12 months of the much-delayed Hawker 4000 is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Hawker inventory, with only five aircraft to be delivered this year, half the number originally predicted.
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Turboprop demand sees no signs of abating in the short term as high fuel prices continue to enhance the competitiveness of these economical aircraft. With over 54% of the world’s turboprop fleet, Raytheon’s dominance of this sector is due to the continued popularity of its Beechcraft King Air twin-turboprop series. Deliveries of the C90GT, a more powerful version of its smallest King Air, began late last year and the inventory already boasts 33 aircraft. Overall, Beechcraft’s turboprop fleet has risen by 211 aircraft to 5,471, including 23 1900C/Ds. Raytheon’s concerted marketing drive to promote the out-of-production 1900D regional airliner as a corporate aircraft is starting to pay off, with the inventory increasing by three in the past year.
Fellow twin-turboprop manufacturer Piaggio has also seen demand continue for its P180, after the launch of the improved Avanti II. The upgraded twin pusher, again a big seller to fractionals, makes its census debut, nudging the total Avanti inventory up by eight to 96 aircraft. The decision by Rockwell Collins to offer the Avanti II’s Pro Line 21 cockpit for retrofit will also help sustain demand for older Avanti types.
Pilatus’s in-service PC-12 fleet has for the second consecutive year risen by over 25% from 498 aircraft to 631. Although North America is the base for over 500 of the single-engined turboprops, the PC-12 fleet is making gains in Africa and Latin America, where an abundance of short unpaved runways have boosted numbers in each region by 50%, to 32 and 14 aircraft respectively.
The decision by Piper Aircraft to install glass cockpits across its range has boosted Meridian single-turboprop fleet numbers by 72 since the last census, bringing its new inventory tally to 1,299 aircraft. EADS Socata decided against committing to a glass cockpit version of its TBM850 single-engined turboprop, the latest in the TBM 700 series, but fleet numbers have continued to climb. The in-service fleet totals 280, a rise of 55 aircraft over the year. The next 12 months is expected to nudge the turboprop inventory higher as Extra Aircraft’s EA-500, VulcanAir’s 600W Mission and Quest Aircraft’s Kodiak come to market.
The burgeoning demand for corporate aircraft is rippling across continents as economic growth brings demand from wealthy individuals and business travellers. But North America continues to dominate the world’s turbine fleet, with the region’s total in the past year rising from 16,681 aircraft to 17,487. According to Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia, a key driver to fleet growth in the USA is record corporate profits. “As a percentage of US gross domestic product, corporate profits rose from 7% in 2001 to 11.6% in the fourth quarter of 2005. Also the American Jobs Creation Act created a one-time $100 billion windfall in 2005 by greatly lowering the tax on repatriated profits.”
Nowhere else enjoys the high levels of acceptance and flexibility in operation as the USA, but the emerging markets of China, India and Russia as well as the economic engines of Latin America – Brazil and Mexico – are exciting manufacturers.
Russia is witnessing an explosion in demand for corporate aircraft. But while aircraft orders and deliveries have escalated in the past year, the country’s tax laws, which require import duty equivalent to 40% of the aircraft’s value to be paid, have forced many to place their aircraft on less constrictive national registers, notably in Aruba, Austria and Switzerland, where business jet inventories are soaring.
This year’s census shows a steady increase in the number of aircraft in the Russian fleet, although most are VIP-configured Russian/CIS types, including Antonov An-74s, Ilyushin Il-76s and Yakovlev Yak-42s, which are becoming increasingly popular for domestic business flights.
India’s fleet is also rapidly expanding. Unlike Russia, India has relaxed taxation laws on imported goods, which has helped to boost sales. According to Flight’s Acas database, India’s in-service fleet doubled from 54 aircraft to 107 between 2000 and 2006 and is now home to 19% of the corporate aircraft fleet within Asia. The past 12 months has seen an increase of new-generation jets in India, including the first ACJ, Citation Bravo and XLS, the second BBJ and the fifth Falcon 2000.
The Pacific Rim has made significant fleet gains since the previous census, with the inventory climbing by 168 aircraft to 771 jets and turboprops. The Australian market is also growing, increasing its fleet by 16 jets and 19 turboprops. The economic recovery in Japan has also led to a remarkable increase in corporate aircraft demand that has pushed up fleet numbers by 64 aircraft to 75 jets and turboprops.
China continues to be a “sleeping giant”. Hampered by cultural, political and economic barriers to market growth, fleet numbers have nudged upward from 49 aircraft to 60. But much is being done by industry to raise the profile and improve the country’s infrastructure and regulatory environment for business aviation in a bid to release a huge untapped demand for business aircraft from a burgeoning wealthy middle class.
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This is a familiar picture for Europe, where the second largest fleet in the world has emerged after years of battling to erode the barriers surrounding acceptance and use of business aviation. While fleet gains of 933 aircraft are recorded in the census over the past year, many believe the continent has still not fully woken up to the benefits of business aviation.
In the meantime, South America is snapping at Europe’s heels as its inventory continues to climb. The region has the third-largest installed base, with the census revealing a fleet rising from 2,255 aircraft to 2,389. Mexico continues to lead, with its corporate aircraft inventory climbing by 63 aircraft to 774 in the past year, while close behind Brazil, home to the largest concentration of turboprops outside North America, saw its fleet climb by 72 aircraft to 667, including 304 jets and 363 turboprops. Elsewhere, Colombia, Paraguay and Venezuela have made fleet gains of 21, 11 and 62 aircraft respectively as thriving economies coupled with the need for travellers to gain access to remote areas is driving demand for business aviation.
In the Middle East the fleet has leapt from 260 aircraft in last year’s census to 333 jets and turboprops. The United Arab Emirates fleet has swollen by 18 jets to 54, driven by the explosion in charter activity, mainly with mid- and large-cabin business jets within its booming borders.
Sellers’ market
The demand for large-cabin jets has been instrumental in sustaining the historical average for the used turbine aircraft available for sale at 10% of the fleet and helping manufacturers shore up prices of new aircraft. Used Falcon 2000s, Global Expresses and Gulfstream Vs are much sought after, says Rick Engles, chief executive of aircraft broker Vance and Engles. He says: “There are no 2000EXs available and very few Globals and GVs. It is a sellers’ market.”
Apart from the Cessna Citation Bravo and Encore, “which have had their day”, says Engles, the demand for smaller-cabin aircraft in good condition is strong, particularly for the Citation XLS, mid-size Sovereign and super mid-size Challenger 300. “Congestion at airports, coupled with the need for a safe and direct form of transport, is helping to drive demand for business aircraft and keep prices high,” he says
For new jets, meanwhile, Aboulafia predicts deliveries this year will hit a record 901 aircraft worth $13.6 billion. “Another year, another peak,” he says.
The imminent service entry of order-busting aircraft such as the recently certificated Eclipse 500 very light jet, Mustang entry-level jet and Sino Swearingen light jet could propel the turbine fleet to new heights for years to come.
■ Data compiled by Flight Group, Railway Terrace, Rugby, Warwickshire, CV21 3HL. Tel: +44 (0) 1788 540898, fax: +44 (0) 1788 540933. Totals derived from base country of the aircraft and not country of registration. Figures are correct as of 31 August.
Source: Flight International
