Industry growth, fractional expansion and new models contribute to bright outlook
Around 8,500 jets worth $131 billion will be delivered between 2004 and 2014 "as industry recovery gets back on track", predicts Honeywell in its annual business aviation outlook released at this week's National Business Aviation Association convention in Las Vegas. "Improved order rates, established new model backlogs, continuing expansion in fractional ownership in North America and Europe and sustained economic recovery are key factors supporting a longer-term outlook for growth," says Bob Johnson, president and chief executive of Honeywell Aerospace.
After a record peak in 2001, deliveries declined more than 20% to reach bottom in 2003, says Honeywell. Business jet shipments rose 2.6% in the first half of this year, to 238 units, and the company expects 2004 deliveries to total 525-550 aircraft - up from 506 in 2003 - rising to more than 650 in 2005 and between 650 and 700 in 2006. Economic growth and new models should support sustained deliveries of around 800 aircraft a year later in the decade, Honeywell believes.
Fractional-ownership programmes are forecast to account for 15-17% of annual deliveries by 2014, up from the near-term figure of 12-13%. Honeywell says demand for new jets in fractional service is sustainable for many years, given that a sizeable portion of the current fleet will be replaced with new aircraft in addition to the shareowner base continuing to expand. Manufacturer backlogs remain at nearly 1,500 orders, options and deposits, about 40% of them attributable to fractionals.
Continued fractional growth, and the fact that more than 1,000 of the aircraft in backlog are new models - including the Bombardier Challenger 300, Cessna Citation Mustang and Sovereign, Dassault Falcon 7X, Gulfstream G150 and Hawker Horizon - leads Honeywell to forecast a near-term period of sustained higher deliveries.
Looking at the 3,450 jets forecast to be purchased over the next five years, Honeywell expects 74% of sales to be in North America, 11% in Western Europe (down from 12% in last year's forecast), 6.3% in Latin America (up from 5%) and 8.5% in Asia. Breaking down its 10-year, 2004-14 forecast into market segments, Honeywell projects deliveries of:
* 1,195 long-range and ultra-long-range aircraft, including the Falcon 7X, Global 5000 and Gulfstream G450/G550;
* 760 larger jets, including the Challenger 604, Embraer Legacy, Falcon 2000EX and Gulfstream G350;
* 2,460 medium and medium-large aircraft, boosted by new models like the Challenger 300, Citation Sovereign, Hawker Horizon and Gulfstream G150;
* 2,350 light and light-medium jets, including the Citation CJ3, Learjet 40 and 45XR;
* 1,560 very light aircraft, which Honeywell says include the Citation CJ1/2 and Mustang, Premier 1 and SJ30-2;
* 125-130 commercial transport aircraft configured as business jets, principally the Airbus Corporate Jet and Boeing Business Jet.
Honeywell does not include in the Business Aviation Outlook a forecast for what it calls the ultra-light or personal jet sector, which includes the Adam 700, Diamond D-Jet and Eclipse 500. But it sees signs of demand for up to 8,000 of these over the next 10-15 years.
GRAHAM WARWICK / WASHINGTON DC
Source: Flight International
