Rising demand for large cabin aircraft, a strong pipeline of new business jets and a resurgent North America will combine to create a robust business aviation market over the next decade, according to Honeywell Aerospace.
In its 22nd edition of its annual Business Aviation Outlook – published yesterday – the technology company forecasts deliveries of 9,250 new business jets between 2013 and 2022 with a value of $250 billion.
Honeywell says while the number of units forecast is lower than its 2012 survey by around 750 aircraft, the value of the shipments is around 4% higher due to a mix of expected price increases and an “on-going trend toward larger business jet models”.
Deliveries of around 620 new business jets are forecast this year, says Honeywell. This is around 80 fewer aircraft than were predicted in the 2012 report, but this is largely due to new program delays, rather than deterioration in demand, it adds.
The survey, which polls 1,500 flight departments around the world, found there is an increasing trend towards aircraft at the top half of the spectrum – from super mid-size through the ultra long-range and VIP-configured narrowbody airliners. These models are expected to account for more than 56% of the total deliveries and 83% of the deliveries value.
“The trend toward larger cabin aircraft with ever increasing range expectations and advanced avionics is seen more strongly than ever in this survey,” says Rob Wilson, president, Honeywell Business and General Aviation.
Demand for new aircraft varies considerably across the regions. North America, notably the USA, looks set to re-emerge. The report predicts that 61% of projected demand between 2013 and 2017 will come from the continent’s operators – an 8% hike over the previous year. “North America represents more than half of projected global demand for the next five years based on the region’s historically dominant installed business jet base, affirming the region’s indisputable importance to the industry’s future,” Honeywell says.
In contrast, the purchase expectations from Brazil, Russia, India and China have fallen by 4% to 42%, the forecast says. On the upside, however, around 40% of buyers within these countries planned to make new purchased within the next two years. “Together, the emerging market results from BRIC countries reflect a slight tempering of enthusiasm compared to a year ago,” says Honeywell.
The outlook for Europe remains bleak. Constrained by its economic straitjacket, it is expected to account for 12% of new business jet deliveries over the next five years – a fall of 6% compared with the 2012 forecast. “The resilience previously shown by European operators in the face of lacklustre economic conditions may have reached the point of fatigue with weak growth prospects expected for 2014,” says Honeywell.
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Source: Flight Daily News
