The coronavirus-ravaged airline industry experienced its sharpest-ever decline in passenger demand during 2020, as global traffic fell 65.9% from 2019 levels, according to full-year data released by IATA today.
“Last year was a catastrophe,” states IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac. “There is no other way to describe it. What recovery there was over the northern hemisphere summer season stalled in autumn and the situation turned dramatically worse over the year-end holiday season, as more severe travel restrictions were imposed in the face of new outbreaks and new [variants] of Covid-19.”
| Traffic, capacity and load factor data for all commercial airline flights in 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 calendar year (% year-on-year) | World share* | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-pt)** | PLF*** |
| Total Market | 100.0% | -65.9% | -56.5% | -17.8% | 64.8% |
| Africa | 1.9% | -68.8% | -61.0% | -14.4% | 57.4% |
| Asia Pacific | 38.6% | -61.9% | -53.9% | -14.3% | 67.5% |
| Europe | 23.6% | -69.9% | -62.1% | -17.4% | 67.8% |
| Latin America | 5.7% | -62.1% | -58.3% | -7.7% | 74.9% |
| Middle East | 7.4% | -72.2% | -63.3% | -18.5% | 57.6% |
| North America | 22.7% | -65.2% | -50.2% | -25.6% | 59.2% |
| *% of industry RPKs in 2020 **Year-on-year change in load factor ***Load factor level Source: IATA Note: International and domestic flights |
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International traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometres was hardest hit, at a fall of 75.6% year on year, on capacity down 68.1% and a load factor 19.2 percentage points lower at 62.8%.
| Traffic, capacity and load factor data for all international commercial airline flights in 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 calendar year (% year-on-year) | World share1 | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-pt)2 | PLF (level)3 |
| International overall | 45.7% | -75.6% | -68.1% | -19.2% | 62.8% |
| Africa | 1.6% | -69.8% | -61.5% | -15.4% | 55.9% |
| Asia-Pacific | 11.0% | -80.3% | -74.1% | -19.5% | 61.4% |
| Europe | 18.5% | -73.7% | -66.3% | -18.8% | 66.8% |
| Latin America | 2.2% | -71.8% | -67.7% | -10.4% | 72.4% |
| Middle East | 6.9% | -72.9% | -63.9% | -18.9% | 57.3% |
| North America | 5.5% | -75.4% | -65.5% | -23.3% | 60.1% |
| *% of industry RPKs in 2020 **Year-on-year change in load factor ***Load factor level Source: IATA Note: International flights only |
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Domestic demand was down 48.8% year on year in RPK terms, on capacity 35.7% lower and a load factor 17 percentage points down at 66.6%.
| Traffic, capacity and load factor data for all domestic commercial airline flights in 2020 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 calendar year (% year-on-year) | World share* | RPK | ASK | PLF (%-pt)** | PLF*** |
| Domestic overall | 54.3% | -48.8% | -35.7% | -17.0% | 66.6% |
| Australia | 0.7% | -69.5% | -62.8% | -14.7% | 66.1% |
| Brazil | 1.6% | -49.0% | -47.4% | -2.4% | 80.3% |
| China PR | 19.9% | -30.8% | -19.7% | -11.7% | 72.9% |
| India | 2.1% | -55.6% | -48.0% | -12.8% | 74.6% |
| Japan | 1.4% | -53.6% | -32.7% | -22.9% | 50.9% |
| Russian Fed | 3.4% | -23.5% | -12.6% | -10.3% | 72.9% |
| USA | 16.6% | -59.6% | -41.4% | -26.4% | 58.8% |
| *% of industry RPKs in 2020 **Year-on-year change in load factor ***Load factor level Source: IATA Note: Domestic flights only |
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The end of the year saw overall traffic trending below the 12-month average, with RPKs 69.7% down in December, following a 70.4% contraction in November.
The full-year figures were boosted by relatively ‘normal’ levels of operation in the first few weeks of 2020, before the scale of the Covid-19 pandemic became apparent.
Splitting results geographically shows no region escaped the overwhelming impact of the virus, with all seeing overall traffic down in the 62-72% range.
Some markets were helped by an ability to keep more domestic services operational during the crisis, with those in China and Russia being standout performers – albeit still way down on 2019 levels of demand.
Looking ahead, IATA notes that bookings for future travel made in January 2021 were down 70% on year-ago figures, “potentially impacting the timing of an expected recovery”.
The industry body is still forecasting RPKs to be around 50% of 2019 levels in 2021, but warns of growing downside risks amid concerns about Covid-19 variants.
“Optimism that the arrival and initial distribution of vaccines would lead to a prompt and orderly restoration in global air travel have been dashed in the face of new outbreaks and new mutations of the disease,” de Juniac says. “The world is more locked down today than at virtually any point in the past 12 months and passengers face a bewildering array of rapidly changing and globally uncoordinated travel restrictions.
“We urge governments to work with industry to develop the standards for vaccination, testing, and validation that will enable governments to have confidence that borders can reopen and international air travel can resume once the virus threat has been neutralised.”
