The introduction of an estimated 7,000 latest-technology aircraft into the world airline fleet over the next decade should reduce the average fuel consumption per 100 passenger-kilometres from the present 3.5 litres (0.9USgal) to 3 litres, according to the International Air Transport Association.
But IATA technical and operations specialist Juergen Haacker says that operational improvements such as improved routeing and aircraft management will advance the efficiency gains further in that period, with a major spur to efficiency gains being the high cost of oil.
IATA says its vision is to make air transport completely carbon-free within 50 years, but it hopes the industry will be "carbon-neutral" - meaning continued traffic growth without any emissions increase - by about 2020.
By that time all the advances available from improvements to existing technology will have been harvested, and gains from new wing and fuselage profiles and next-generation engines can be expected to begin to kick in.
Engine improvements, according to Haacker, might include unducted fans, but he admits that the predicted increased noise involved in their use is one of the issues that will have to be debated, with decisions on priorities expected in the next six years or so.
These decisions will be influenced by global governmental forums such as the global warming conference currently taking place in Bali, Indonesia, predicts Haacker.
He insists that taxing air travel has been demonstrated to have a negligible effect on demand, and argues that taxing fuel is a disincentive for governments to invest in efficiency-improving measures such as eliminating delay and indirect routeing from air traffic services provision.
Source: FlightGlobal.com
