News analysis - Business jet frenzy may be over

Kate Sarsfield/LONDON

Business jet manufacturers are once again celebrating record year-end deliveries - yet the frenzy for personalised, flexible transport may have finally reached its peak, with analysts warning that orders could slow as the faltering US economy hits sales. Deliveries are nevertheless expected to rise again in the current 12 months as manufacturers continue to work off hefty backlogs.

In its recent annual market forecast, powerplant manufacturer Honeywell identifies "a potential cooling of near-term order levels", but says this will be "offset over the next few years by already high backlogs, the impact of new and derivative aircraft models entering service and rapidly expanding fractional ownership plans".

Honeywell projects the delivery of 6,800 business jets, valued at over $90 billion, between 2001 and 2011. Last year, overall deliveries rose by 10.8%, with 758 aircraft handed over, against 684 in the previous 12 months.

Bombardier once again led the pack in value terms, delivering 207 aircraft. Its total was boosted by a 67% hike in deliveries of its superlight Learjet 45, in the aircraft's second full year of production. Deliveries of the Learjet 31, 60 and Global Express business jets also rose modestly, while those of the Challenger dipped, although the type last year passed the 500-delivery milestone.

Not surprisingly, Cessna retains pole position in unit terms, with 252 Citation business jet deliveries recorded last year, and 415 orders booked. The 12.5% increase in deliveries was boosted by a near-doubling in Citation Excel output, which, combined with the rise in production of the rival Learjet 45, reflected the increasing popularity of the burgeoning superlight sector - a market dominated by the two types, which accounted for three-quarters of total output in the sector.

While 2000 saw service entry of Cessna's entry level CJ1 and its slightly larger stablemate the CJ2, it also marked the end of the line for the mid-size Citation VII and with it the Citation 650 series, launched 17 years ago with the Citation III. The gap will eventually be filled by the newest Citation family member, the mid-size Sovereign, due to enter service in 2004.

Cessna's biggest aircraft, the Citation X, saw a modest decline in deliveries, but will benefit this year from a range of enhancements designed to increase the range and fuel economy of what is already the fastest business jet.

Raytheon also enjoyed a marked increase in business jet deliveries, although its total includes a handful of aircraft held over from 1999's inventory. The start of deliveries of its much delayed entry level Premier I, for which over 250 orders have been secured, should significantly boost this year's total.

Gulfstream delivered 71 aircraft and Dassault 73, and both expect deliveries to remain static this year. To stimulate interest in their product lines, the pair are developing "upmarket" variants of established designs - the GV-SP and Falcon 2000EX - each offering an advanced cockpit and longer range at higher speeds. Both aircraft have attracted around 30 orders so far, and should enter service in 2003.

Three business jet sectors saw a decline in deliveries last year, with the light and super mid-size sectors accounting for a smaller share of overall production as backlogs stabilised, and ultra-long range output was stymied by completion bottlenecks.

Super mid-size output should be boosted by the market entry of new generation models, starting late next year with the Bombardier Continental, but it is harder to see a way back for light sector models, such as the Citation Encore, which have suffered at the expense of the superlight boom.

The ultra-long range sector suffered the sharpest decline in market share last year, output dropping from 102 to 89 units as Boeing became the latest manufacturer to experience completion delays due to high production levels.

With those bottlenecks now ironed out and completion cycles cut from around six to four months, Boeing will ramp up deliveries this year in an effort to work off its 70+ BBJ order backlog. It should deliver its first BBJ2 - a corporate variant of the 737-800 - for completion this month.

Boeing says the variant, for which just four orders have been received so far, should ultimately account for around 35% of total BBJ sales.

Source: Flight International