News analysis - Jets soar as prop sales slump

As orders for turboprops fall to a record low, the continuing hunger for 30- to 50-seater regional jets means sales are surging

Max Kingsley-Jones/LONDON

Regional airliner orders surged by 30% last year to over 850 aircraft as the market for small jets continues to boom. However, the year also marked the further demise of the turboprop market, as orders slumped to a 28-year low.

Sales of regional jets totalled 778 last year - 726 aircraft after adjusting for cancellations. This represents a massive 42% increase on 1999, and more than 90% of the 805 net orders for regional aircraft last year. Driving the expansion is the airlines' continuing hunger for 30-50 seaters, combined with accelerated sales of the newer large regional jet types.

Embraer was by far the dominant player in 2000, achieving net sales of 418 aircraft, and putting 1999's victor Bombardier firmly into second place. The Canadian manufacturer sold a net total of 269 regional aircraft - 228 jets and 41 turboprops.

Fairchild Dornier had a less impressive year compared to 1999. Net sales were down from 172 to 63, and its fortunes were not helped by the U-turn in its strategy at the lower end of the market, which saw it suddenly terminate development of the 44-seat 428JET. Although it was able to re-negotiate deals with orders for the smaller 328JET, the move has effectively orphaned the 33-seater and left the company with a patchy product line in the 30-50 seat category.

Output by regional jet manufacturers also increased by 40%, to 304 aircraft, with production across the popular 30-50 seat models averaging almost one jet every weekday last year. Almost 60% of these are for North American customers, with European operators accounting for a third of the total produced.

The regional jet's invasion of what was once a traditionally turboprop market continues apace. Almost three-quarters of all regional aircraft produced last year were jets. In 1999, jets made up two thirds of total regional output.

Embraer was again the most prolific producer, delivering 157 jets, 60% more than in 1999. Bombardier handed over 134 aircraft - 99 jets and 35 Dash 8 turboprops - but is poised to boost output further this year with deliveries of the 70-seat CRJ700.

Despite boom times elsewhere, BAE Systems is content to keep its airliner output at a subdued level as it attempts to cherry pick only the most financially lucrative deals for the RJ family. Fifteen aircraft were delivered last year as production of the current model winds down in favour of the updated RJ-X. The company, however, has yet to land any big orders for the new model to shore up the long-term future of the four-engined jet.

Turboprop production has gravitated around three players: ATR, Bombardier and Raytheon. But with the order intake last year down to 79 aircraft, much of the output is effectively on a build-to- order basis. Nevertheless, as delivery levels have stabilised to sensible levels of around 120 aircraft annually for the last two years, this has let the backlog grow by 30%.

The backlog for all regional aircraft has grown by 38% year-on-year to 1,420 aircraft. Unsurprisingly, jets account for over 90% (1,286 units) of the total, and the leading manufacturers are studying production ramp-ups to ensure that delivery lead times are kept to a reasonable level.

Source: Flight International