When Garuda Indonesia retired its final Boeing 747-400 on 9 October, it confirmed an inevitable milestone for the original queen of the skies as the 747 passenger in-service fleet declined below that of the Airbus A380.
This month marks 10 years since the Airbus double-decker entered service, and over that decade Toulouse has shipped a total of 216 A380s to 13 customers. Of these, 213 are currently operational, Flight Fleets Analyzer shows (two Singapore Airlines A380s are grounded as they are being returned off lease, while an Air France A380 is in Goose Bay after the recent in-flight engine problem).
When the A380 arrived in service in 2007, the 747 passenger fleet totalled around 550 units. As the A380 fleet has expanded, the numbers of the original Jumbo Jet have steadily declined every year – despite production of the type continuing.
Flight Fleets Analyzer shows that with the Garuda retirement, there are 209 747s in passenger operation with airlines (a further 326 aircraft are in service in freight, VIP and other non-passenger-airline roles). The combined A380/747 airline passenger fleet stands at 423 aircraft, meaning that the worldwide fleet of ultra-large airliners has declined by over a fifth during the last decade.
"Airbus has indeed succeeded in removing the 747 as a competing passenger aircraft," says Richard Evans, senior consultant at Flight Ascend Consultancy. "However, the future market-share battle seems to have shifted to large single-aisles and 300-seat twin-aisles."
Boeing has delivered a total of 118 of its re-engined 747-8 family since the first in 2011. However, the vast majority of these (74 aircraft) are of the -8F cargo variant. Just three airline customers have taken the -8I passenger version, with Air China, Korean Air and Lufthansa accounting for 44 aircraft between them.
The last 747-8I on order by an airline was delivered to Korean Air (HL7644) on 31 July. The backlog currently stands at 17 aircraft – including three -8I passenger versions for VIP customers. It remains to be seen if Boeing can secure any additional airline orders for the passenger 747.
Korean Air took the last of the current batch of patch of passenger 747s on order in July
Max Kingsley-Jones/FlightGlobal
"I think there are very limited prospects for any new 747-8I orders," says Flight Ascend Consultancy's head of market analysis, Chris Seymour. "The market has spoken and instead of the 747-8I (or indeed A380) being the natural replacement for 747-400s, most airlines have downsized to twin-engined types to be able to offer higher frequencies and offer more routes. Focus is now on the 777X and A350-1000 for the 2020s, and Boeing's decision to reduce 747 production to six units a year is effectively to just meet freighter demand."
According to Flight Fleets Analyzer, British Airways is currently the largest passenger 747 operator with 36 of the aircraft in service – all -400s. Lufthansa is a close second, with a fleet of 32 comprising 13 -400s and 19 -8Is. KLM and Korean Air are next in line, with 15 (all -400s) and 14 (four -400s/10 -8Is) respectively.
The 747 passenger fleet is poised to shrink further in the coming months, as the two major US operators – Delta Air Lines and United Airlines – end their operations of the type. They currently operate seven and 10 747-400s, respectively. United is to cease 747 services next month, with Delta following in December.
Source: Cirium Dashboard
