If the millennium bug decides to take a bite out of the US airline industry, it will not be through lack of dialogue on the subject. Perhaps characteristically, Americans see communication as the primary frontline weapon in the war against potential computer chaos at the birth of the new century.
This year the focus on the year 2000 issue has intensified tangibly and, consequently, so has the talk. From coast to coast on a daily basis there are now internal briefings, meetings with outside companies and agencies, and conferences on the subject. Some information technology managers joke that they now spend so much of their time talking about the Y2K issue that they are forgetting to tackle the problem itself. But sharing information, solutions and costs remains a key method in the US industry's plan to be ready by the non-negotiable deadline. Ironically, it is a lesson learned almost too late by one of the most critical US players - the Federal Aviation Administration. But most of the North American carriers feel cautiously comfortable with where they are in their Y2K timetables and all stress that open communication has put them in that enviable position.
But the industry is not overly bullish. Many of the major carriers, even those that have been addressing the Y2K issue for several years, admit that unforeseen glitches could occur on 1 January 2000 because until that day no-one knows for sure what will happen. Contingency plans are therefore being built into their Y2K programmes. Chief concerns centre on contamination from outside sources - suppliers or, even less predictably, suppliers to suppliers - as well as the readiness of some smaller airports and regional carriers that are not affiliated to a major.
The FAA did a hop, skip and a jump at the beginning of 1998 to catch up with the Y2K efforts that much of the rest of the industry already had in place, but its timetable remains white-knuckle tight. And while Boeing is satisfied there are no flight-critical Y2K issues associated with any old or new aircraft, it stresses there are limits to its areas of responsibility.
The Air Transport Association is at the centre of much of the gathering and disseminating of information. Within a $16 million approved Y2K programme that covers the US and Canada, the ATA is coordinating information across its member airlines, airports, suppliers, manufacturers and government agencies. It is also the chief link between the carriers and the International Air Transport Association, which has its own $20 million Y2K project, and the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
Tom Browne is the ATA's year 2000 programme executive director. 'What we are trying to do is gather all the available information for the airlines so that it only has to be done once. That is the better use of everyone's resources,' say Browne. A secure website has been set up for data gleaned by the ATA so that all authorised parties can get access to the latest information. The ATA is visiting or contacting hundreds of airports, thousands of commercial suppliers and all the relevant government agencies, including customs and immigration, asking them for details of their year 2000 compliance status. The major goal is to have a baseline database completed by the end of 1998, although this will require an all-out effort in the remaining months.
By July there were still some 150 airports left to visit and only a tenth of the 6,000 contacted suppliers had responded. Browne remains confident. 'I believe the industry will be ready,' he says. Levels of awareness about the issue are generally high, he points out, although admitting that some organisations were slow to realise the extent of the embedded processor problem.
Dick Marchi, senior vice president of technical and environmental affairs and chief Y2K coordinator for the Airports Council International (ACI), agrees this was a blind spot for many airport managers. 'We've had our year 2000 programme running for two years now and we have had awareness-raising meetings as well as more focused meetings,' says Marchi. 'The key thing is to make sure that people are aware not only of the problems, but also of the subtleties of the problems. We were a little late in the airport business to raise the issue of embedded processors.' Some airports, for instance, had overlooked the fact that there is a computer chip in each runway light that might need to be replaced.
The ACI has been coordinating with the ATA since late 1997 and has completed an inventory of airports in the Washington DC metropolitan area as well as surveys of some 20 other airports. The information learned is being forwarded to other airports because many of the problems discovered will be common. Specialised airport equipment suppliers, points out Marchi, are relatively rare so a problem in equipment at one airport is likely to also be a problem for many other airports.
However, Marchi adds that the number of affected systems at airports is typically not as large as in other industries. Generally, he says, airports are finding that some 200 systems need attention and, of those, only 50 or 60 are critical to operations. 'That is not huge compared with some of the manufacturing industries that are heavily reliant on computers,' he says. Airports are also being advised to regard a computer fix as only one of the possible remedies. For example, if a local area network (LAN) has been created so an airport can share data with its tenant airlines or a field site, and that LAN is not compliant, then a facsimile might be a useful backup. 'There are different ways to fulfil a function,' he says. 'But from where we stand now, I don't think anybody will be in crisis.'
The FAA's Y2K programme was kicked into top gear earlier this year after an embarrassing report by the US General Accounting Office revealed that the agency was seriously behind schedule and might not be ready in time. FAA administrator Jane Garvey has since created a centralised programme office, the director of which, Ray Long, reports directly to her. The agency has brought forward its deadline for all systems to be certified and operational to the end of June 1999, rather than November as originally planned. The $192 million programme is divided into five phases, beginning with awareness and ending with the implementation phase that will start on 31 March next year. The third phase, renovation, will be completed by the end of this month.
Garvey admits it will be important to keep to the five-point plan after the public debacle last year. 'The 30 September date is the next important dateline to establishing our credibility. Congress is very sceptical,' she admits. However, Garvey also feels that the FAA has learned two critical lessons about the Y2K problem that others in the industry should know about. 'First, tackling Y2K needs leadership from the top. That is where the deadlines must come from. Second, we need to assure the public we have the Y2K issue under control. Public perception is vital. We can build that assurance by being candid and making our approach public. Airlines need a comprehensive plan and should let it be known that it will be business as usual.' Fundamentally, adds Garvey, Y2K is not a technical issue - it is a management problem.
Those US carriers that have had Y2K programmes active since 1995 or 1996 - which is most of the majors - agree that a top-down management approach has been important. Most are also very open about their programmes and praise the ATA efforts, which they say are saving them millions of dollars by avoiding a duplication of effort.
Estimated costs for individual carriers, however, vary widely between airlines. Federal Express expects a $40 million bill, Northwest Airlines says it will spend $55 million, while American Airlines and Delta Air Lines will each spend over $100 million. Southwest Airlines, by contrast, estimates that its five-point programme will cost only $15 million - a figure which the airline says is in line with its overall low cost philosophy.
'We are a very cost-efficient company and so we have been very careful about technology that we have added. Many of the new technologies were introduced only in the last two or three years and were already year 2000 compliant,' says Lutha Grigsby, a year 2000 senior manager at Southwest. The airline is even getting a smile out of the millennium bug. In an effort to raise awareness of the issue across the company, there has been a year 2000 celebration with trivia quizzes. 'We have made it fun,' says Grigsby.
Most of the majors have internal web pages for employees and most have used outside IT consultants for at least part of their programmes - usually during the early awareness stages when they wanted an independent view about potential problems. Some will bring back those consultants at the validation phases as a double-check. FedEx, which describes its approach as 'highly disciplined', is using outside consultants throughout its four-tier programme. 'It's a very good way to bring an independent set of eyes to what you are doing,' says year 2000 project managing director Dinah Allison.
All the majors stress that they are where they should be in their Y2K timetables and most have given themselves such comfortable margins that they will be spending most of this year and next shaping up emergency contingency plans or liaising with suppliers to rule out problems from outside. 'Some 90 per cent of our applications is already completed,' says Susan Garcia, director of technology project management at American. 'By 30 June we had everything inventoried, assessed and codes changed. All our operational systems are done and by 31 July 1999 all the infrastructure will be completed. We deliberately set that for a later date so we can take advantage of new technology. For instance, some 12,000 PCs at corporate headquarters will be replaced over the next six or seven months, but that still gives us a comfortable cushion.'
American, like all the US majors with regional affiliates, is including its commuter subsidiary, American Eagle, in its programme. This is good news for the larger regionals, although there remain some concerns in the industry about the readiness of smaller, unaffiliated carriers. Many of these are using outside consultants and the Regional Airlines Association is coordinating an information programme between its members and the ATA. The RAA, however, has almost no financial resources for this programme.
The US industry feels it has its house in order, but there is increasing concern about how well prepared the international community will be for the fateful date change. The FAA has deferred to Iata and Icao in dealing with the issue, but warns it is prepared to take unilateral action to protect US airlines and their passengers. For the moment, however, the emphasis is on open communications - the US wants to talk Y2K.
Source: Airline Business
