Alexander Lebedev controls a quarter of Russia's flag carrier Aeroflot, a third of its biggest aircraft lessor, and one of its primary airframers, but even he sees only a modest future for the nation's once enormous aviation industry.
The powerful chairman of National Reserve Bank (NRB) - and head of Russia's National Investment Council - was in London in April talking up his plans to persuade Ukraine to merge Antonov with Voronezh Aircraft (VASO), of which he is gaining control via his stake in Ilyushin Finance. NRB's influence in Russian aviation was further increased recently with its purchase of the 26% stake held by UK-based Millhouse Capital in Aeroflot.
Lebedev denies that his various interests depend on each other, but he wants to see Aeroflot acquire more of the Ilyushin Il-96s that VASO builds and Ilyushin Finance funds, and the flag carrier has also signed a tentative letter to take 25 of Antonov's embryonic An-148 regional jet.
"Antonov's real orders are tiny," says Lebedev. "The Ukrainian Government is in a cocoon. Production is more or less OK, but the amount of real business is tiny. The aim is to have one company, including the Ukrainian government as a shareholder."
Even if he can pull it all together, however, Lebedev concedes that output will be nowhere close to the production rates of old, or what Boeing and Airbus achieve even today. "How many aircraft are needed - about 100 over the next four years," he suggests.
But he sees a brighter future and believes that Airbus, which has to find ways of delivering on its hefty promises of offset work in return for Aeroflot's earlier A320 order, could play a role.
Lebedev says: "Only when we produce 100 aircraft a year do we become really competitive. I want this company to become quite big scale so that we bring in substantial money, otherwise I do not think we will be able to survive."
Source: Airline Business
