The recession is over despite what you might read, says John Leahy. Airbus's super salesman rarely does downbeat, but his demeanour after a Farnborough in which Leahy comfortably won his "bet" with boss Louis Gallois that the airframer would notch up 130 firm orders was more ebullient than usual.
Even Boeing - which famously does not "do orders" at the big shows - was on a high, debuting a 787 Dreamliner that a year ago was a programme in turmoil and announcing over 200 commitments over the week.
Yet, as the show got going, headlines in the UK and beyond were reporting forecasts of a double-dip recession, with a fragile recovery collapsing under the weight of sovereign defaults, soaring unemployment and fiscal austerity.
It is hard to reconcile the two moods. Talk to almost anyone in the industry - from original equipment manufacturer to the lowliest producer down the supply chain - and all indicators point to a pace of recovery way beyond what virtually anyone hoped at the start of the year. What a contrast with Paris 2009 is a phrase that came up a lot during the week.
What is helping, of course, is that, despite the crisis in Greece and elsewhere in southern Europe, and a sluggish US economy, parts of the world are in rude health. They include Brazil - identified by EADS as probably its most important emerging market - China - enjoying double-digit growth - and India, with a burgeoning defence warchest and nascent air transport sector. The Middle East - its big three Arabian Gulf carriers in attendance - retains its huge appetite for the West's aerospace products: civil and military.
Adding to Leahy's delight was the re-emergence of leasing legend Steven Udvar-Hazy. The man who virtually invented aircraft leasing as we know it was rumoured to be planning a comeback after retiring from the company he founded, ILFC. But his order for 125 aircraft, including 51 Airbus A320 family types - the first tranche of what will be a 200-strong portfolio within three years - was more brash than anyone expected. Udvar-Hazy did not get to be one of the wealthiest entrepreneurs in the industry by misjudging market demand. It would a brave person to bet he has this time.
All air shows involve an amount of hype and talking up prospects of the industry and certain programmes. Farnborough was no exception. But last week felt like a turning point. The next few months will determine whether that optimism is misplaced.
Source: Flight International
