MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON
Paris saw the A340 versus 777 tussle hit centre stage
After a relatively lean spell, interest in Airbus and Boeing's long-haul widebody families underwent a major revival during the show. Orders from Emirates and Qatar Airways enabled Airbus to launch the high gross weight (HGW) version of the A340-600, while Emirates firmed up its long-held intention to lease a large fleet of the longest-range version of the largest Boeing 777 model, the -300ER.
How will these aircraft fit into the fleets, what effect will the deals have on the rival manufacturers' orderbooks, and what are the prospects for the future?
The two variants represent one half of two model families that between them offer either higher-capacity, long-range ability - the 380-seat -600 and 365-seat -300ER - or fewer seats and ultra-long-range ability - the 313-seat -500 and 301-seat -200LR. Both families have sole-source engine supply, with the Airbus powered by four Rolls-Royce Trent 500s and the Boeing by two General Electric GE90-115Bs, the world's most powerful turbofan.
The A340-600 entered service last year, with Virgin Atlantic, and 10 aircraft are flying across the globe - four with the UK carrier, two with Cathay Pacific, one with Iberia and three with South African Airways.
The -500 should have entered service recently with Air Canada, but deliveries have been deferred due to the carrier's financial woes. The launch task now falls to Emirates, which will begin operations in September from its Dubai hub.
The rival 777-300ER began flight tests in February and delivery to launch customer Air France is due in the second quarter of next year. Development of the -200LR is around two years behind that of its big sister, with service entry due in early 2006.
The deals announced by Emirates and Qatar Airways took the total A340-500/600 orders to 96, from 13 customers, and provided the launch commitments for the new HGW version of the -600. Airbus has so far declined to produce a detailed specification for the new 376,000kg (828,000lb) maximum take-off weight -600, saying only that it offers a 650km (350nm) increase in range or a 5.5t greater payload than the current version.
Meanwhile, Emirates' lease deals for 26 777-300ERs - 14 from GE Capital Aviation Services (GECAS) and 12 from International Lease Finance (ILFC) - gave the programme an important shot in the arm and will increase the backlog for the -200LR/300ER family by nine units, to 70 aircraft, when all the paperwork is signed. This was as a result of four incremental orders from GECAS, plus a further five order conversions by GECAS and ILFC to the -300ER from the earlier 777-200/300 models, which are now unofficially dubbed "Classic".
The rivals are now pitched in a series of sales campaigns across the globe as airlines seek new-generation replacements for their older Boeing 747s, or larger companions to add to existing A330/A340 or 777 fleets. Known A340/777 campaigns include Air Algerie, Air New Zealand, Cathay Pacific and Gulf Air, among others. Thai International has already announced plans to order A340-600s, but given its previous buying policy, a deal for 777-300ERs as well cannot be ruled out.
Although both aircraft are about 10% smaller than the 747, they are promoted by both manufacturers as replacements, providing improved range, cargo capacity and operating costs over the 400-seater, with their smaller size providing scope for frequency growth on 747 routes.
Boeing is unlikely to produce any major 747 upgrade until the 7E7 programme is up and running, but while some observers believe this leaves the door open to the larger Airbus A380 to provide airlines with a 747 replacement, the US manufacturer believes it is already building the replacement. "If the 747 is going to be replaced by anything, then it will be the 777-300ER," says Boeing Commercial Airplane Group's executive vice-president sales Toby Bright.
Analysts expect the bulk of the orders placed for the new models will be for the larger -600 and -300ER versions, with sales of the ultra-long-range -500 and -200LR reserved for niche, 16,000km-plus missions such as transpacific routes or Oceania-Europe sectors.
So most campaigns see the A340-600 pitched against the 777-300ER and, given their similar size and performance, the arguments often focus on the "four engines versus two" argument. This boiled over publicly last year at Farnborough, when Airbus displayed the first A340-600 for Virgin Atlantic with the slogan "4 engines 4 long haul" on its Trent 500s.
Boeing reacted angrily to the suggestion that four engines make the A340 more reliable than the 777 twinjet, and it now constantly broadcasts claims that the A340 has a higher number of schedule interruptions (15/1,000 flights compared to the 777's 7.6/1,000 flights) and in-flight turnbacks (0.437/1,000 flights compared to 0.273/1,000 flights for the 777).
Airbus counters by simply stating that when an engine fails on an A340 it is inconvenient, but it does not disrupt the flight significantly, whereas an engine failure on a 777 results in an immediate need to divert to the nearest airport.
The pros and cons of the two aircraft can be scrutinised when Emirates puts its A340-500s into service later this year alongside its 777 Classic fleet. However, the industry will have to wait until 2007 for a true comparison, when Emirates puts its first of 18 A340-600HGWs into service alongside its direct rival, the 777-300ER, which it will introduce in 2005.
The airline's decision to split the order is intriguing. Political considerations aside, Emirates has clear reasoning for operating both models. "We will have a fleet that operates sectors of up to 10h from our Dubai hub - the 777s - while the -600HGW can carry a greater payload - 42-45t - on very long, 14h-plus sectors year-round," says Emirates chief director (airline) Tim Clark.
Emirates will use the A340-500 when it arrives in September to launch non-stop services to Australia and the USA. The -600s will replace the -500 on some of these sectors, releasing the smaller A340 for even longer missions.
Qatar Airways' evaluation included all four variants, but it plumped for the -600. Although both the A340-500 and the 777-200LR were able to meet all its requirements, including the long Doha-Los Angeles [LAX] sector, the airline was attracted by the better seat/km costs offered by the larger A340-600HGW and 777-300ER.
The -600HGW could better meet Qatar's range requirements than the -300ER, and won the day. Qatar points out that "although it can't do Doha-Los Angeles, the -600HGW can reach the majority of major North American points", and says it may order the longer-range -500 if plans for the LAX route are firmed up.
The airline ran Airbus and Boeing close during negotiations, finally dropping the US manufacturer after Airbus agreed to meet its June 2006 in-service target for the new -600 variant.
Qatar Airways is launch customer for this model, taking its two aircraft almost a year earlier than Emirates, and is pushing Airbus to have the new model ready even earlier. It holds eight A340-600 options, all of which it expects to firm up as the -600, although it holds conversion rights. "Any -500 order will probably be an additional deal," it says.
So the evidence so far suggests the A340 won the tussle at Paris in terms of orders, and holds a marginal lead in overall sales terms over the 777. But there is a long way to go and many more battles to be won before this particular war is over.
Source: Flight International
