A single percentage point fall in air traffic growth over the next 20 years could eliminate 6 million jobs worldwide, according to a new report "Aviation: the real world wide web". The report sets out to counterbalance the long-running debate about the impact of aviation on the environment. It was compiled by analysts Oxford Economics, and commissioned by Airbus, with the support of British Airways and EasyJet.

It puts the aviation industry's contribution to global social and economic development into bold numbers and re-examines some potential myths about aviation and the environment. It lays out the facts for "well-meaning individuals" who, says BA chief executive Willie Walsh, believe that supporting aviation-related industries by buying imported produce, for example, is bad for the environment.

It also examines the benefits "eco-tourists" who travel by air bring to poorer countries through opening trade routes and increasing awareness of environmental preservation.

"The general view is that travel and tourism is bad for the third world, but you can come up with statistics and facts that prove the opposite," says Airbus chief executive Tom Enders at the report's launch in London on last Friday.

The 124-page report establishes that 35% of all trade by value ($3.5 billion) in manufactured goods carried by air. The air transport industry directly employs more than 5.5 million people and contributes $425 billion to global gross domestic product. It estimates that when combined with supply chain and dependent industries such as tourism, aviation supports more than 33 million jobs worldwide and contributes $1.5 trillion to GDP.

Based on the latest long-term market forecast from Airbus, Oxford Economics calculates that by 2026 the industry's direct and indirect contribution will support 50 million jobs and $3.6 trillion of the world's GDP. But the analysts warn: "Should passenger and cargo traffic growth be one percentage point lower than currently forecast for the 2007-26 period, the number of jobs supported would be reduced by 6 million to 44 million, and the contribution by $600 billion."

While the report acknowledges that aviation has had an impact on aviation, it promotes a "sensible balance" between the industry's positive contribution to the world, and the impact of future growth. "Stopping or reducing air transport would not automatically lower emissions," says Oxford Economics, as a number of factors are at play: for example, the level of emissions released by replacement transport modes and the replacement activity, as well as their supply chains.

Source: Flight Daily News

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