A US Department of Defense report on China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) has warned that the balance of air power across the Taiwan Strait could tilt in China's favour by 2005 if projected trends continue.

The Congressionally mandated report says that, by 2005, the PLA air force will have about 150 fourth-generation fighters, limited aerial refuelling and airborne early warning aircraft, and an active-radar air-to-air missile "approaching the [Raytheon AIM-120] AMRAAM's capability."

China's short-range surface to surface missile forces near Taiwan continue to grow, according to the Pentagon. There is now a single intermediate range CSS-6 (DF-15) ballistic missile unit in the area, and this "may soon be augmented by a CSS-7 (M-11) short-range ballistic missile unit and one additional CSS-6 unit."

This would be consistent with reports last year that Washington expected up to 650 such missiles would be sited near Taiwan by 2005. China's land-attack cruise missiles have a "high development priority" and benefit from foreign technology, "particularly from Russia", says the report.

This year's study places more emphasis on the PLA's high-technology programmes. The PLA is said to be "investigating the feasibility of ship-based laser weapons for air defence". Previous Pentagon reports on the PLA have stated that the Chinese could already have a ground-based laser capable of blinding low-orbit imaging satellites.

China's "theoretical understanding" of stealth technology is described as "excellent", and it is developing a stealthy jet fighter, the report says, and has "multiple programmes" to reduce the radar signatures of fighter aircraft.

The report notes ongoing PLA efforts to improve automated command and control systems, electronic warfare, and information warfare capabilities.

While China continues to protest against US ballistic missile defence plans, the Pentagon says in its report for the first time that China "can be expected to try to develop a viable ATBM [anti-tactical ballistic missile] and ABM [anti-ballistic missile] capability by either producing its own weapons or acquiring them from foreign sources".

The report notes that the Chinese HQ-16 surface-to-air missile programme is being co-developed with Russia, "possibly involving SA-11 technology," and a short-range system is being developed, "based on the SA-15".

The report also says China's civil space programmes with Brazil, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, South Korea and the UK may be assisting the country's military space work to build new imaging, radar, intelligence and micro-satellites.

Russia and China "have 11 joint space projects." China's manned space programme, which only "began within the last five years or so", will benefit military space programmes like it did for the USA.

Source: Flight International