Over the next 15 years, annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates across the Southern Ring are predicted to be consistently two to four times those in developed regions, thanks to the potential hydrocarbon wealth beneath the Caspian. Azerbaijan's GDP growth leads the field and is forecast to peak at 12% in 2006. Analysis shows that GDP accounts for two-thirds of air traffic growth rates while increasing trade links contribute strongly to the other third.
Even conservative estimates of the hydrocarbon wealth buried beneath the Caspian are staggering. The US Energy Information Administration puts proven oil reserves for the neighbouring countries at around 25 billion barrels, comparable to the USA or the North Sea. Total oil reserves could equate to 25% of the Middle East's proven resources while Caspian natural gas reserves, particularly in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, are thought to exceed even the massive oil potential in the region.
Source: Flight International