More than $10 billion separates next-decade estimates
Two new forecasts of the global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) market over the next decade differ markedly in their growth predictions, mainly in the engine sector.
Although both Anglo-US consultancy AeroStrategy and Back Aviation Solutions/TeamSAI of the USA roughly agree on a 2003 market value of about $36 billion, the former's estimate of the 2013 value is 22% greater than the latter's projections for 2014.
AeroStrategy sees a 2013 value of $60 billion compared to Back/TeamSAI's $49.1 billion in 2014, which is primarily due to the latter putting a lower current value on the engine sector and predicting more modest growth for it.
Whereas AeroStrategy values the 2013 engine MRO market at $12.4 billion and sees it growing at 6.6% annually to $23.6 billion in 2013, Back/TeamSAI says the 2003 value was only $10.5 billion and will grow by only just over 3% a year to $14.8 billion in 2014.
AeroStrategy believes that six engines will each account for more than $1 billion a year in 2013 - the General Electric CF6-80C2, three CFM International CFM56 variants; the Pratt & Whitney PW4000; and International Aero Engines V2500-A5/D5. They also see shop visits leaping by 20% to 10,300 between 2003 and 2005 as the aircraft delivery surge of the late 1990s shows through.
Back/TeamSAI believe the trend towards smaller aircraft, particularly regional jets, will be a powerful downward influence on MRO costs, intensified by increased outsourcing and more efficient work practices. Back principal Steve Casley adds: "Regional jets are both newer and more efficient for many air carrier routes, helping to reduce maintenance requirements."
KIERAN DALY / LONDON
Source: Flight International
