Dave Higdon/HOUSTON
After several false dawns, the much trumpeted renaissance of general aviation in the USA finally appears to have become reality in 1997 - with a hint of a continuing strengthening of the position in years to come, according to figures delivered by the Federal Aviation Administration during the agency's 8th Annual General Aviation Forecast Conference.
According to the FAA forecast, general aviation flying should increase steadily from this year through to 2009. Driving the growth are anticipated increases in new aircraft sales fuelled by an expected expansion of the pilot population.
Given the historical export levels of US aircraft manufacturers, the FAA forecast, by extension, means more new aircraft being exported.
The projected improvements in US general aviation fleet numbers is hardly spectacular, with a forecast average 1% annual growth taking numbers up to 213,000 at the end of period from 187,300 at the end of 1997. Turbine aircraft growth is forecast to reach 2%. The conservative numbers anticipate a large number of retirements among older general aviation aircraft still in operation.
The FAA's forecast anticipates annual growth of 1.4% a year in total hours flown by general aviation pilots. In the turbine categories, expansion is expected to reach 2.4%.
Perhaps the best long term news for general aviation businesses is the 2.1% a year overall growth in the pilot population expected by the FAA. Within the overall figure the private pilot population should grow 2.5% annually, while student starts expand at 3.3% a year and air transport licence holders grow by only 1.5%.
Last year brought an 8.3% gain in the student pilot population, the first growth in student starts in more than a decade. The long-desired reversal in the number of new student pilots is vindication of several learn-to-fly efforts mounted by the general aviation community recently.
Although the number of active pilots declined for a seventh consecutive year, student pilot numbers increased to 94,947, from 86,101 in 1996. The FAA expects there to be 791,200 active pilots in 2009, an increase of 175,000 over the period. There are now 616,300 active pilots registered with the FAA, including 247,600 private fliers.
Barring European Joint Aviation Authority action cutting into the annual migration of European students into the USA, flight school operations should see gains in the number of foreign students passing through their doors.
"After the US Congress passed the General Aviation Revitalisation Act of 1994 we hoped for growth," says the FAA's Louise Maillett, acting assistant administrator for policy, planning and international aviation. "We kept looking and looking - through 1995, 1996, 1997 - now we can see it starting to happen."
Perhaps the strongest evidence of the upturn came from members of the General Aviation Manufacturers Association. Members delivered a total of 1,569 aircraft in 1997, up from 1,130 in 1996. Piston shipments totalled 985, up by 64% over 1996. Turbojet aircraft shipments totalled 384, an increase of 44%. Of those aircraft, more than 30% landed in the hands of owners and operators outside the USA, an export total more than 30% above 1996 levels.
FAA officials noted the sales gains of 1997 - the strongest of three consecutive years of advances - as evidence supporting the trend, says Maillett.
In parallel with the gains in sales, which is the easiest measure to apply to the health of the industry, other areas also advanced.
Hours flown increased from 26.1 million hours in 1996 to 26.5 million hours last year. According to the FAA forecast report, the number of active general aviation aircraft was 189,300 in 1997, up from 187,300 in 1996.
After years of gloomy forecasts, the FAA's 1998 outlook is the first in about 15 years to foresee steady, across-the-board improvement in all critical areas - backed up by a year in which growth prevailed.
What does the forecast mean in aircraft terms? New-aircraft sales should rise to between 3,500 and 4,000 a year in 10 years.
In practical terms, if aircraft manufacturers' individual backlogs, plans and predictions are true, annual output should be closing on 3,000 a year by the close of the decade with exports continuing to account for a significant percentage of the output.
The relative strengths and weakness' of various regions of the world remain a matter of debate. For example, the Asian economic crisis has not cost aircraft manufacturers any significant orders already on the books, but it has made marketing of future production tougher.
Growth is expected, on the other hand, in South America, Africa and Europe that should help keep export percentages at around one-third of total production. When Asia's turmoil starts to calm, many expect export percentages to, at the worst, remain stable and, at the best, grow slightly.
More importantly, the FAA predicts steady improvements in aviation's most fundamental measure: the pilot population.
Without pilot growth, world fleets would probably remain stable, with older aircraft retired more quickly as newer craft enter the fleet.
With a growing pilot population, however, demand for aircraft - and the ability to keep aircraft active - increases.
No FAA forecast conference would be complete without questions about data reported from the agency's annual aircraft and avionics survey.
Not all the numbers delivered could be reconciled with one another and not all the report's findings mesh with experience or research within the community. Nevertheless, they are the best figures available and, with trends pointing in the right direction, nobody is getting too heated over the finer points of forecasting, although the FAA is aware there is room for improvement.
Source: Flight International
