Graham Warwick/LAS VEGAS
Almost 6,500 business aircraft worth nearly $78 billion will be delivered between 1999 and 2009, says a new forecast from AlliedSignal Aerospace, released at the National Business Aviation Association convention in Las Vegas, Nevada, which opened on 19 October.
The company's latest Business Aviation Market Outlook predicts that deliveries of aircraft under 45,350kg (100,000lb) gross weight will peak at 580 in 1999 (up from 530 in 1998), then remain high until reaching another record peak towards the end of the next decade.
Additionally, AlliedSignal projects demand for 170 corporate-configured airliners, worth $7.6 billion, between 1999 and 2009.
The forecast cites the "relative strength and stability of the North American economy" and the introduction of new aircraft as factors in the projected increase in deliveries. The forecast was drawn up, however, before economists began warning of a US recession as early as next year.
The near-term projection of 2,400-2,700 business jet deliveries between 1998 and 2002 represents a 47% increase over the previous five-year period. AlliedSignal believes 80% of those aircraft will be sold in North America. Projected demand from Asian, Latin American and European operators has been reduced by economic concerns. Breaking down its projections by size class, AlliedSignal forecasts 1999-2009 deliveries of:
1,400-plus entry-level business jets; 2,100 light and light/medium (or "superlight") jets; 1,540 medium and medium/-large (or "super mid-size) jets; 520-plus large jets (ie Falcon 2000 and Challenger 604"); 840-plus "jumbo" and global-range jets (ie Falcon 900, Global Express and Gulfstream IV/V).Growth rates are expected to be highest in the newer entry-level, super mid-size and global-range categories, AlliedSignal says.
Source: Flight International
