The US government must be prepared to pay virtually the entire cost of operating the Boeing Delta IV and Lockheed Martin Atlas V evolved expendable launch vehicles (EELV), says a report by US think-tank Rand. This is because the government is likely to be the sole user of the vehicles as they cannot compete on price with foreign rivals, the report says.
Development of the EELVs was funded jointly by the US Air Force and the manufacturers, and commercial launches were expected to reduce the cost of government flights. But demand collapsed and the Atlas V and Delta IV are "largely uncompetitive in today's commercial market", says the report.
As primary user the US government will have to pay most of the costs, and it must tackle several issues, says the report, which was compiled by a panel of space experts. One issue is whether to continue to support two different launcher families for assured access to space. Rand recommends 2010 as the target date for a decision.
The report points out that maintaining both EELVs beyond 2010 could entail extra costs, including $500-800 million to set up US production of the Atlas V's Russian-made RD-180 engine in the USA, as required under the current contract. A further $200 million would be needed to uprate the Delta IV Heavy for launches planned beyond 2010, and the USAF must decide whether to fund Lockheed to develop a competing heavylift Atlas V, the report says.
The panel did not take a position on the Boeing and Lockheed plan to combine their government launch businesses under the United Launch Alliance, which awaits approval, but its report says the government must move quickly to acquire "deep and unfettered insight" into its technical and financial performance. The USAF buys EELV launches on commercial terms and has limited insight.
Source: Flight International