Emma Kelly/BRUSSELS

Europe's Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) programme faces three major risks involving aircraft equipage rates, the readiness of states and developing a safety case in time, which could impact a go/no-go decision next year, Eurocontrol is warning.

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RVSM is the "key" short-term capacity-enhancing programme for European airspace and is expected to increase volume in some sectors by 20%.

It is due for implementation in 40 states on 24 January 2002. The programme will implement 1,000ft (300m) vertical separation minima between flight level 290 (29,000ft) and FL410, creating six new flight levels.

RVSM will give operators substantial fuel benefits through operating at optimum flight levels. On the Beirut-London sector, for example, an Airbus A321 would save 2t of fuel, says Joe Sultana, Eurocontrol's RVSM programme manager.

Before implementation, Eurocontrol must establish a safety case which will require most airframes to be RVSM-approved by 31 March. Eurocontrol has already installed the height-monitoring infrastructure, which is measuring the height-keeping accuracy of aircraft. The RVSM safety case will be presented in May, allowing a go/no-go decision in July - two months ahead of the original date to provide slack in the programme.

The top three risks are that not enough aircraft will be approved, that some states will not be ready and that safety objectives cannot be met, says Sultana.

The programme will involve 2,600 operators, 104 aircraft types, with 11,200 airframes currently operating in RVSM airspace. To obtain RVSM approval, aircraft are required to meet height-keeping requirements. Around 6,420 aircraft are RVSM compliant, but many operators have yet to make aircraft modifications, while some aircraft manufacturers have not provided RVSM solutions. By July, 90% of the flights need to be operated by RVSM approved aircraft.

Eurocontrol is also concerned about a number of states which have yet to implement their RVSM plans. "If one or more states are not ready this will be critical, as we cannot have an RVSM area with holes," he says.

Source: Flight International